ScoreProb
Log in
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Amorebieta vs Eibar II

Amorebieta Home · Elo 1,526
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eibar II Away · Elo 1,531
Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Amorebieta win
Amorebieta winPick
51.9%
Draw
28.4%
Eibar II win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%

How much we know

Amorebieta history56 matches
Eibar II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Amorebieta are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,526 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.14 goals a game over 56 matches for Amorebieta, against 1.18 over 51 for Eibar II.

  • Defences are close

    Amorebieta concede 1.07 a game, Eibar II 1.04.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Amorebieta matches, against 37% for Eibar II. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Amorebieta
Eibar II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.8
ELO
1530.7
56
ELO · Matches
51
1525.8
Current Team ELO
1530.7
1530.7
Current Opponent ELO
1525.8
-4.91
Current ELO Difference
4.91
0.49
Expected score
0.51
56
History Matches
51
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.50
Overperformance
52.32
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
51
1.39
PPG
1.47
37.5%
Win rate
41.2%
26.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
35.7%
Loss rate
35.3%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.7%
41.1%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.59
PPG
1.28
44.4%
Win rate
32.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
32.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
36.0%
59.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
8.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.14
Goals for per game
1.18
69.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
46.4%
BTTS rate
43.1%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.04
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
56
History Matches
51
1.14
Goals Mean
1.18
1.01
Goals Std
1.17
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
10.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.04
66.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.81
Goals against per game
0.92
63.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
56
History Matches
51
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.05
Conceded Std
0.88
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.9%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.40
0.93
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
51
19
Lead Matches
16
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.96
11
Trailing Matches
11
18.2%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
98.25
Rest days
196.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.23
92.45
Portability Score
81.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.91
PPG-0.08
GF-0.03
GA0.03
PPG0.31
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-1.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score10.85
Rest days-97.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-4.91
Current Opponent ELO4.91
Current ELO Difference-9.82
Expected score-0.01
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Amorebieta

L
Basconia2–1Amorebieta7 Nov · away
Pick: Basconia 39% · hit
W
Amorebieta1–0Gimnástica Torrelavega1 Nov · home
Pick: Amorebieta 41% · hit
W
Amorebieta2–1Coruxo24 Oct · home
Pick: Amorebieta 46% · hit
W
Gernika1–2Amorebieta17 Oct · away
Pick: Amorebieta 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Eibar II

W
Eibar II4–1Atlético Astorga7 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 39% · missed
L
Deportivo Alavés II2–1Eibar II1 Nov · away
Pick: Deportivo Alavés II 41% · hit
W
Eibar II3–2Bergantiños24 Oct · home
Pick: Bergantiños 37% · missed
D
Portugalete0–0Eibar II17 Oct · away
Pick: Portugalete 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Amorebieta and Eibar II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Amorebieta win 51.9%, draw 28.4%, Eibar II win 19.7%. The pick is Amorebieta win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.5%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.