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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Atlético Astorga vs Arosa

Atlético Astorga Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arosa Away · Elo 1,616
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Astorga win
Atlético Astorga winPick
45.1%
Draw
24.5%
Arosa win
30.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Atlético Astorga history56 matches
Arosa history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Atlético Astorga are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arosa are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,531. On rating alone Arosa would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Arosa score more

    1.39 goals a game over 56 matches for Atlético Astorga, against 1.72 over 50 for Arosa.

  • Defences are close

    Atlético Astorga concede 1.05 a game, Arosa 1.16.

  • Arosa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Atlético Astorga matches, against 52% for Arosa. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Astorga
Arosa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.4
ELO
1616.3
56
ELO · Matches
50
1531.4
Current Team ELO
1616.3
1616.3
Current Opponent ELO
1531.4
-84.88
Current ELO Difference
84.88
0.38
Expected score
0.62
56
History Matches
50
0.03
Residual Mean
0.12
52.38
Overperformance
58.46
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
3.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.70
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
1.59
PPG
1.88
42.9%
Win rate
52.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
32.0%
26.8%
Loss rate
16.0%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.0%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
24
1.73
PPG
1.92
46.7%
Win rate
54.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
20.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
30
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.72
73.2%
Scoring rate
88.0%
44.6%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.50
90.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
50
1.39
Goals Mean
1.72
1.22
Goals Std
1.15
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
88.0%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.0%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.05
Goals against per game
1.16
62.5%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.04
56.7%
Conceding rate
62.5%
56
History Matches
50
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.11
Conceded Std
0.99
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.36
1.89
Stability score
9.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
50
17
Lead Matches
19
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.86
10
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.92
Rest days
104.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.53
44.53
Portability Score
65.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-84.88
PPG-0.29
GF-0.33
GA-0.11
PPG-0.18
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches6
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-7.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.46
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.99
Portability Score-20.81
Rest days-19.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO-84.88
Current Opponent ELO84.88
Current ELO Difference-169.8
Expected score-0.24
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Astorga

L
Eibar II4–1Atlético Astorga7 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 39% · missed
L
Racing Santander II2–0Atlético Astorga1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
D
Atlético Astorga1–1Gernika24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 58% · missed
L
Compostela4–1Atlético Astorga17 Oct · away
Pick: Compostela 41% · hit
L
Atlético Astorga0–1Palencia CF29 Aug · home
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed

Arosa

D
Portugalete3–3Arosa1 Nov · away
Pick: Portugalete 54% · missed
W
Arosa2–0Pontevedra27 Oct · home
Pick: Pontevedra 43% · missed
L
Sestao River1–0Arosa24 Oct · away
Pick: Sestao River 42% · hit
W
Arosa4–1Llanera18 Oct · home
Pick: Arosa 40% · hit
D
Ourense CF0–0Arosa4 Oct · away
Pick: Ourense CF 42% · missed

About this match

Atlético Astorga and Arosa meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atlético Astorga win 45.1%, draw 24.5%, Arosa win 30.4%. The pick is Atlético Astorga win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.