ScoreProb
National 2 - Group B France 2026

Angoulême vs Saint-Malo

Angoulême Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Saint-Malo Away · Elo 1,554
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Angoulême win
Angoulême winPick
46.5%
Draw
26.5%
Saint-Malo win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.2%
No55.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.3%
Under 2.563.7%

How much we know

Angoulême history46 matches
Saint-Malo history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Angoulême are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Saint-Malo are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,501. On rating alone Saint-Malo would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Saint-Malo score more

    0.89 goals a game over 46 matches for Angoulême, against 1.29 over 45 for Saint-Malo.

  • Defences are close

    Angoulême concede 1.02 a game, Saint-Malo 0.96.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    28% of Angoulême matches, against 36% for Saint-Malo. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Angoulême
Saint-Malo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.4
ELO
1553.8
46
ELO · Matches
45
1501.4
Current Team ELO
1553.8
1553.8
Current Opponent ELO
1501.4
-52.42
Current ELO Difference
52.42
0.43
Expected score
0.57
46
History Matches
45
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
50.35
Overperformance
54.55
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
45
1.39
PPG
1.53
34.8%
Win rate
37.8%
34.8%
Draw rate
40.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
22.2%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
28.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.6%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.8%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
1.96
PPG
1.19
58.3%
Win rate
28.6%
20.8%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.8%
Loss rate
38.1%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.89
Goals for per game
1.29
60.9%
Scoring rate
71.1%
34.8%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.05
83.3%
Scoring rate
61.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
45
0.89
Goals Mean
1.29
0.89
Goals Std
1.15
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.1%
21.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.96
58.7%
Conceding rate
64.4%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.14
54.2%
Conceding rate
76.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
45
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.96
1.13
Conceded Std
0.92
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
45
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.23
0.17
Stability score
2.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
45
10
Lead Matches
18
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.78
10
Trailing Matches
9
50.0%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.38
78.00
Portability Score
72.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.42
PPG-0.14
GF-0.40
GA0.07
PPG2.00
PPG0.77
PPG0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate22.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-2.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score5.64
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO-52.42
Current Opponent ELO52.42
Current ELO Difference-104.8
Expected score-0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Angoulême

W
Angoulême2–1Le Poiré sur Vie17 Oct · home
Pick: Angoulême 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Saint-Malo

D
Saint-Malo1–1Châteaubriant31 Oct · home
Pick: Saint-Malo 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Angoulême and Saint-Malo meet in National 2 - Group B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Angoulême win 46.5%, draw 26.5%, Saint-Malo win 27.0%. The pick is Angoulême win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.3%. Both teams to score: 44.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.