ScoreProb
National 2 - Group B France Group B - 9 2026

Châteaubriant vs Granville

Châteaubriant Home · Elo 1,440
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Granville Away · Elo 1,468
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Granville win
Châteaubriant win
32.5%
Draw
23.8%
Granville winPick
43.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Châteaubriant history46 matches
Granville history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Granville are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Granville are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,468 against 1,440. On rating alone Granville would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Granville score more

    0.93 goals a game over 46 matches for Châteaubriant, against 1.15 over 47 for Granville.

  • Granville concede fewer

    Châteaubriant concede 1.57 a game, Granville 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Châteaubriant matches, against 45% for Granville. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Châteaubriant
Granville@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.5
ELO
1468.2
46
ELO · Matches
47
1439.5
Current Team ELO
1468.2
1468.2
Current Opponent ELO
1439.5
-28.70
Current ELO Difference
28.70
0.46
Expected score
0.54
46
History Matches
47
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.48
Overperformance
47.86
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
47
1.11
PPG
1.11
30.4%
Win rate
25.5%
19.6%
Draw rate
34.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
40.4%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.1%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.39
PPG
0.96
39.1%
Win rate
21.7%
21.7%
Draw rate
30.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
47.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.93
Goals for per game
1.15
56.5%
Scoring rate
76.6%
41.3%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.22
65.2%
Scoring rate
87.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
69.6%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
0.93
Goals Mean
1.15
1.03
Goals Std
0.85
56.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.4%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.40
73.9%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.83
82.6%
Conceding rate
78.3%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.26
Conceded Std
1.36
52.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
47
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.36
6.44
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
9
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
14
13.3%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.40
Portability PPG Range
0.46
71.43
Portability Score
68.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.70
PPG0.00
GF-0.21
GA0.16
PPG0.00
PPG0.43
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate20.1%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate21.7%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score4.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate6.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score3.08
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO-28.70
Current Opponent ELO28.70
Current ELO Difference-57.41
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Châteaubriant

D
Saint-Malo1–1Châteaubriant31 Oct · away
Pick: Saint-Malo 63% · missed
D
Châteaubriant1–1Stade Briochin17 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Briochin 54% · missed
D
Chauray0–0Châteaubriant29 Aug · away
Pick: Chauray 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Granville

D
Granville0–0Lorient II31 Oct · home
Pick: Lorient II 36% · missed
L
Saumur2–1Granville17 Oct · away
Pick: Saumur 44% · hit
D
Pontivy GSI1–1Granville29 Aug · away
Pick: Pontivy GSI 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Châteaubriant and Granville meet in National 2 - Group B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Châteaubriant win 32.5%, draw 23.8%, Granville win 43.7%. The pick is Granville win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.