ScoreProb
National 2 - Group B France 2026

Les Herbiers vs Stade Briochin

Les Herbiers Home · Elo 1,559
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stade Briochin Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Les Herbiers win
Les Herbiers winPick
38.6%
Draw
26.9%
Stade Briochin win
34.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Les Herbiers history50 matches
Stade Briochin history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Les Herbiers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Les Herbiers are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,559 against 1,473. On rating alone Les Herbiers would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Les Herbiers score more

    1.68 goals a game over 50 matches for Les Herbiers, against 1.38 over 55 for Stade Briochin.

  • Les Herbiers concede fewer

    Les Herbiers concede 1.02 a game, Stade Briochin 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Les Herbiers matches, against 58% for Stade Briochin. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Les Herbiers
Stade Briochin@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1559.1
ELO
1472.5
50
ELO · Matches
55
1559.1
Current Team ELO
1472.5
1472.5
Current Opponent ELO
1559.1
86.55
Current ELO Difference
-86.55
0.62
Expected score
0.38
50
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.02
53.79
Overperformance
48.54
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
55
1.80
PPG
1.33
54.0%
Win rate
36.4%
18.0%
Draw rate
23.6%
28.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
26.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
2.21
PPG
1.15
66.7%
Win rate
26.9%
20.8%
Draw rate
34.6%
12.5%
Loss rate
38.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.38
78.0%
Scoring rate
76.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.31
79.2%
Scoring rate
76.9%
33.3%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
55
1.68
Goals Mean
1.38
1.35
Goals Std
1.20
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
54.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.49
66.0%
Conceding rate
78.2%
0.58
Goals against per game
1.54
45.8%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
55
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.49
0.99
Conceded Std
1.29
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
55
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.74
9.17
Stability score
2.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
17
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.84
9
Trailing Matches
14
22.2%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
27
Normal Rest History Matches
34
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.47
62.85
Portability Score
40.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO86.55
PPG0.47
GF0.30
GA-0.47
PPG-2.00
PPG1.05
PPG-1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score7.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate12.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate15.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-0.77
Portability Score22.35
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO86.55
Current Opponent ELO-86.55
Current ELO Difference173.1
Expected score0.24
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Les Herbiers

D
Les Herbiers0–0Pontivy GSI17 Oct · home
Pick: Les Herbiers 51% · missed
L
Dinan Léhon2–0Les Herbiers29 Aug · away
Pick: Les Herbiers 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Stade Briochin

D
Châteaubriant1–1Stade Briochin17 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Briochin 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Les Herbiers and Stade Briochin meet in National 2 - Group B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Les Herbiers win 38.6%, draw 26.9%, Stade Briochin win 34.5%. The pick is Les Herbiers win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.