ScoreProb
National 2 - Group B France 2026

Chauray vs Bayonne

Chauray Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayonne Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayonne win
Chauray win
20.2%
Draw
28.1%
Bayonne winPick
51.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Chauray history42 matches
Bayonne history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bayonne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayonne are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,485. On rating alone Bayonne would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Bayonne score more

    1.19 goals a game over 42 matches for Chauray, against 1.55 over 40 for Bayonne.

  • Bayonne concede fewer

    Chauray concede 1.26 a game, Bayonne 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Chauray matches, against 45% for Bayonne. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chauray
Bayonne@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.6
ELO
1593.2
42
ELO · Matches
40
1484.6
Current Team ELO
1593.2
1593.2
Current Opponent ELO
1484.6
-108.6
Current ELO Difference
108.6
0.35
Expected score
0.65
42
History Matches
40
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.11
48.14
Overperformance
57.33
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
40
1.36
PPG
1.98
38.1%
Win rate
60.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
17.5%
40.5%
Loss rate
22.5%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
21
1.53
PPG
1.57
47.4%
Win rate
47.6%
10.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
42.1%
Loss rate
38.1%
42.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
19
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.55
64.3%
Scoring rate
77.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.24
52.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
36.8%
BTTS rate
38.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
40
1.19
Goals Mean
1.55
1.10
Goals Std
1.18
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.5%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
17.5%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
0.90
76.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.05
78.9%
Conceding rate
66.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
40
1.26
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.09
Conceded Std
0.83
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
40
0.97
Result entropy
0.86
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.49
3.17
Stability score
13.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
33
7
Lead Matches
13
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.83
Portability PPG Range
0.44
54.55
Portability Score
69.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-108.6
PPG-0.62
GF-0.36
GA0.36
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate13.2%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate3.6%
Conceded 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches2
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-10.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate7.7%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-15.05
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-108.6
Current Opponent ELO108.6
Current ELO Difference-217.2
Expected score-0.30
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chauray

L
Tarbes2–1Chauray31 Oct · away
Pick: Tarbes 51% · hit
L
Saint-Colomban Locminé3–1Chauray17 Oct · away
Pick: Saint-Colomban Locminé 57% · hit
D
Chauray0–0Châteaubriant29 Aug · home
Pick: Chauray 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bayonne

W
Dinan Léhon0–2Bayonne17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayonne 48% · hit
W
Bayonne1–0Saumur29 Aug · home
Pick: Bayonne 67% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chauray and Bayonne meet in National 2 - Group B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chauray win 20.2%, draw 28.1%, Bayonne win 51.7%. The pick is Bayonne win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.