Antigua and Barbuda vs Trinidad and Tobago
Match result probability Model pick: Antigua and Barbuda win
Antigua and Barbuda winPick
39.2%
Draw
26.6%
Trinidad and Tobago win
34.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes43.6%
No56.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%
How much we know
Antigua and Barbuda history2 matches
Trinidad and Tobago history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Antigua and Barbuda
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 22:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 23:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why Antigua and Barbuda are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Antigua and Barbuda are rated 45 Elo points higher
Elo 1,481 against 1,436. On rating alone Antigua and Barbuda would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Trinidad and Tobago score far more
0.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Antigua and Barbuda, against 0.72 over 18 for Trinidad and Tobago.
-
Antigua and Barbuda concede fewer
Antigua and Barbuda concede 1.50 a game, Trinidad and Tobago 2.28.
-
Trinidad and Tobago games more often go over 2.5 goals
0% of Antigua and Barbuda matches, against 61% for Trinidad and Tobago. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trinidad and Tobago@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1480.5
ELO
1435.6
2
ELO · Matches
18
1480.5
Current Team ELO
1435.6
1435.6
Current Opponent ELO
1480.5
44.90
Current ELO Difference
-44.90
0.56
Expected score
0.44
2
History Matches
18
-0.49
Residual Mean
-0.23
45.58
Overperformance
39.24
-0.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
2
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
0.20
0.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2
Matches
10
0.00
PPG
0.40
0.00
Goals for per game
0.70
1.50
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals 90
2
Matches
18
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
5.6%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
61.1%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals 100
1
Matches
14
0.00
PPG
0.36
0.0%
Win rate
7.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
78.6%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
1
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.00
Goals for per game
0.72
0.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.57
0.0%
Scoring rate
42.9%
0.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2
History Matches
18
0.00
Goals Mean
0.72
0.00
Goals Std
0.80
0.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
2.28
100.0%
Conceding rate
94.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.57
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2
History Matches
18
1.50
Conceded Mean
2.28
0.50
Conceded Std
1.45
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
2
History Matches
18
0.00
Result entropy
0.75
0.50
Goal Difference Std
1.80
100.0
Stability score
24.66
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
17
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.33
1
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.18
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.24
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
519.9
Rest days
110.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.40
0
Long Rest History Matches
11
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.55
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
6
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.27
—
Portability PPG Range
0.67
—
Portability Score
64.52
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
2
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO44.90
PPG-0.50
GF-0.72
GA-0.78
PPG-0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate42.9%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.72
Goals Std-0.80
Scored 1+ rate-0.50
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.78
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.78
Conceded Std-0.95
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Conceded Mean-1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.75
Goal Difference Std-1.30
Stability score75.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.18
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days409.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches-11
Current Team ELO44.90
Current Opponent ELO-44.90
Current ELO Difference89.79
Expected score0.13
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.26
Overperformance6.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Antigua and Barbuda
W
Antigua and Barbuda3–2Aruba6 Oct · home
Pick: Aruba 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Trinidad and Tobago
D
Trinidad and Tobago1–1Curaçao4 Oct · home
Pick: Trinidad and Tobago 39% · missed L
Trinidad and Tobago1–2Dominican Republic28 Sep · home
Pick: Trinidad and Tobago 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Antigua and Barbuda and Trinidad and Tobago meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Antigua and Barbuda win 39.2%, draw 26.6%, Trinidad and Tobago win 34.1%. The pick is Antigua and Barbuda win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 43.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.