Bonaire vs Cuba
Match result probability Model pick: Cuba win
Bonaire win
27.3%
Draw
20.9%
Cuba winPick
51.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
How much we know
Bonaire history3 matches
Cuba history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cuba
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.
Why Cuba are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,488 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Cuba score more
1.00 goals a game over 3 matches for Bonaire, against 1.33 over 6 for Cuba.
-
Cuba concede fewer
Bonaire concede 2.00 a game, Cuba 1.17.
-
Bonaire games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of Bonaire matches, against 50% for Cuba. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1487.9
ELO
1502.8
3
ELO · Matches
6
1487.9
Current Team ELO
1502.8
1502.8
Current Opponent ELO
1487.9
-14.92
Current ELO Difference
14.92
0.48
Expected score
0.52
3
History Matches
6
-0.17
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.76
Overperformance
49.82
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
3
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
3
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
1.33
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
2.00
Goals against per game
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.17
0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.07
Overall performance9 signals 90
3
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
2
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
2
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3
History Matches
6
1.00
Goals Mean
1.33
1.41
Goals Std
0.47
33.3%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.17
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
3
History Matches
6
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.17
0.82
Conceded Std
0.90
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
3
History Matches
6
0.58
Result entropy
1.00
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.07
42.06
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
2
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
159.1
Rest days
227.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
0
Normal Rest History Matches
2
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
1
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
3
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-14.92
PPG-0.33
GF-0.33
GA0.83
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate66.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std0.94
Scored 1+ rate-0.67
Scored 2+ rate0.0%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Std0.94
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Conceded Mean1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.42
Goal Difference Std1.09
Stability score42.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-68.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Current Team ELO-14.92
Current Opponent ELO14.92
Current ELO Difference-29.84
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Bonaire and Cuba meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Bonaire win 27.3%, draw 20.9%, Cuba win 51.8%. The pick is Cuba win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.