ScoreProb
CONCACAF Nations League World League B - 2 2025

Barbados vs Guadeloupe

Barbados Home · Elo 1,461
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guadeloupe Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guadeloupe win
Barbados win
37.1%
Draw
21.4%
Guadeloupe winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Barbados history6 matches
Guadeloupe history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Guadeloupe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guadeloupe are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,461. On rating alone Guadeloupe would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Guadeloupe score more

    0.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Barbados, against 1.00 over 2 for Guadeloupe.

  • Guadeloupe concede fewer

    Barbados concede 2.00 a game, Guadeloupe 0.00.

  • Barbados games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Barbados matches, against 0% for Guadeloupe. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Mar 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barbados
Guadeloupe@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.3
ELO
1519.5
6
ELO · Matches
2
1461.3
Current Team ELO
1519.5
1519.5
Current Opponent ELO
1461.3
-58.26
Current ELO Difference
58.26
0.42
Expected score
0.58
6
History Matches
2
-0.32
Residual Mean
0.49
42.56
Overperformance
54.44
-0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.49
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
0.20
PPG
3.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
6
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
3.00
0.83
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
1.15
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
1
0.33
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.83
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
6
History Matches
2
0.83
Goals Mean
1.00
0.69
Goals Std
0.00
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
0.0%
2.33
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
6
History Matches
2
2.00
Conceded Mean
0.00
1.15
Conceded Std
0.00
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
2
0.58
Result entropy
0.00
1.07
Goal Difference Std
0.00
42.06
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
2
0
Lead Matches
1
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
228.0
Rest days
596.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
1
Normal Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
3
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-58.26
PPG-2.67
GF-0.17
GA2.00
PPG-2.67
PPG-2.80
PPG-2.67
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.83
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-1.00
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.69
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate16.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches4
Conceded Mean2.00
Conceded Std1.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.83
Conceded 2+ rate66.7%
Conceded 3+ rate50.0%
Venue Conceded Mean2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.15
History Matches4
Result entropy0.58
Goal Difference Std1.07
Stability score-57.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.07
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Trailing Matches2
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-368.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Current Team ELO-58.26
Current Opponent ELO58.26
Current ELO Difference-116.5
Expected score-0.17
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.81
Overperformance-11.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.81

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barbados

W
Bermuda1–2Barbados6 Oct · away
Pick: Barbados 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guadeloupe

L
Guadeloupe0–1St. Lucia5 Oct · home
Pick: Guadeloupe 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barbados and Guadeloupe meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Barbados win 37.1%, draw 21.4%, Guadeloupe win 41.5%. The pick is Guadeloupe win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.