Aruba vs Martinique
Match result probability Model pick: Aruba win
Aruba winPick
49.3%
Draw
20.4%
Martinique win
30.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.4%
Under 2.536.6%
How much we know
Aruba history7 matches
Martinique history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Aruba
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.3%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why Aruba are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Aruba are rated 53 Elo points higher
Elo 1,517 against 1,464. On rating alone Aruba would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Aruba score far more
2.00 goals a game over 7 matches for Aruba, against 0.50 over 4 for Martinique.
-
Defences are close
Aruba concede 1.86 a game, Martinique 1.75.
-
Aruba games more often go over 2.5 goals
86% of Aruba matches, against 25% for Martinique. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Martinique@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1517.2
ELO
1464.3
7
ELO · Matches
4
1517.2
Current Team ELO
1464.3
1464.3
Current Opponent ELO
1517.2
52.92
Current ELO Difference
-52.92
0.58
Expected score
0.42
7
History Matches
4
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.35
52.79
Overperformance
44.10
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.35
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
0.25
2.20
Goals for per game
0.50
2.20
Goals against per game
1.75
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
7
Matches
4
1.86
PPG
0.25
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
1.86
Goals against per game
1.75
57.1%
Win rate
0.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.75
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.43
0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
3.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals 90
7
Matches
4
1.86
PPG
0.25
57.1%
Win rate
0.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
3.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
0
2.00
PPG
—
66.7%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
33.3%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
3.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
71.4%
Scoring rate
25.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
25.0%
2.67
Goals for per game
—
66.7%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
7
History Matches
4
2.00
Goals Mean
0.50
1.60
Goals Std
0.87
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
25.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
42.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.86
Goals against per game
1.75
85.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.33
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
7
History Matches
4
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.73
Conceded Std
0.43
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
75.0%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
7
History Matches
4
0.87
Result entropy
0.51
3.14
Goal Difference Std
0.83
13.01
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
7
Eligible Matches
4
4
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.33
1
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
1.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
1.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
158.8
Rest days
228.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
4
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
7
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateVenue Goals MeanVenue Conceded MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO52.92
PPG1.61
GF1.50
GA0.11
PPG1.55
PPG1.61
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.46
History Matches3
History Matches3
Goals Mean1.50
Goals Std0.74
Scored 1+ rate46.4%
Scored 2+ rate32.1%
Scored 3+ rate42.9%
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std1.29
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.46
Conceded 3+ rate28.6%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.29
History Matches3
Result entropy0.36
Goal Difference Std2.31
Stability score-35.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.31
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention0.67
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-69.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO52.92
Current Opponent ELO-52.92
Current ELO Difference105.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.46
Overperformance8.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.46
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Aruba
L
Antigua and Barbuda3–2Aruba6 Oct · away
Pick: Aruba 45% · missed W
Aruba3–2Anguilla4 Oct · home
Pick: Aruba 58% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Martinique
D
Martinique1–1El Salvador5 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Aruba and Martinique meet in CONCACAF Nations League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Aruba win 49.3%, draw 20.4%, Martinique win 30.3%. The pick is Aruba win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.4%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.