Apollon Pontou vs Panserraikos
Match result probability Model pick: Apollon Pontou win
Apollon Pontou winPick
54.9%
Draw
25.4%
Panserraikos win
19.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.5%
No52.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%
How much we know
Apollon Pontou history47 matches
Panserraikos history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Apollon Pontou
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Apollon Pontou are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Apollon Pontou are rated 236 Elo points higher
Elo 1,667 against 1,431. On rating alone Apollon Pontou would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.
-
Apollon Pontou score far more
1.77 goals a game over 47 matches for Apollon Pontou, against 0.80 over 54 for Panserraikos.
-
Apollon Pontou concede fewer
Apollon Pontou concede 0.51 a game, Panserraikos 1.89.
-
Panserraikos games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of Apollon Pontou matches, against 56% for Panserraikos. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Panserraikos@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1667.4
ELO
1431.0
47
ELO · Matches
54
1667.4
Current Team ELO
1431.0
1431.0
Current Opponent ELO
1667.4
236.4
Current ELO Difference
-236.4
0.80
Expected score
0.20
47
History Matches
54
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.06
61.85
Overperformance
45.46
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
54
2.23
PPG
0.91
70.2%
Win rate
22.2%
12.8%
Draw rate
24.1%
17.0%
Loss rate
53.7%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
17.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
27
2.77
PPG
0.74
90.9%
Win rate
18.5%
4.5%
Draw rate
18.5%
4.5%
Loss rate
63.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
22
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.77
Goals for per game
0.80
76.6%
Scoring rate
51.9%
21.3%
BTTS rate
46.3%
2.18
Goals for per game
0.70
90.9%
Scoring rate
48.1%
18.2%
BTTS rate
40.7%
47
History Matches
54
1.77
Goals Mean
0.80
1.36
Goals Std
0.91
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
51.9%
55.3%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
31.9%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.51
Goals against per game
1.89
36.2%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.27
Goals against per game
2.19
22.7%
Conceding rate
88.9%
47
History Matches
54
0.51
Conceded Mean
1.89
0.74
Conceded Std
1.50
14.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.8%
0.27
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
63.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
77.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
63.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
48.1%
77.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
63.8%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
54
0.74
Result entropy
0.92
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.98
26.05
Stability score
7.98
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
54
24
Lead Matches
10
95.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.67
5
Trailing Matches
24
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
81.08
Rest days
81.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
11
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.19
72.38
Portability Score
83.72
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO236.4
PPG1.33
GF0.97
GA-1.38
PPG2.03
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate52.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate66.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.97
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate24.7%
Scored 2+ rate33.1%
Scored 3+ rate26.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-1.38
Conceded Std-0.76
Clean-sheet rate52.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.30
Conceded 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Conceded Mean-1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score18.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate35.8%
Lead Points Retention0.31
Trailing Matches-19
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.70
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-11.34
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.59
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.91
Current Team ELO236.4
Current Opponent ELO-236.4
Current ELO Difference472.8
Expected score0.59
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance16.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Apollon Pontou
L
Marko2–0Apollon Pontou2 Nov · away
Pick: Marko 38% · hit L
Apollon Pontou0–2Niki Volos24 Oct · home
Pick: Apollon Pontou 54% · missed L
PAOK II2–1Apollon Pontou19 Oct · away
Pick: Apollon Pontou 42% · missed D
Zakynthos1–1Apollon Pontou5 Oct · away
Pick: Zakynthos 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Panserraikos
L
Panserraikos0–1Niki Volos27 Oct · home
Pick: Panserraikos 37% · missed W
Panserraikos3–2Ellas Syros24 Oct · home
Pick: Ellas Syros 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Apollon Pontou and Panserraikos meet in Super League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Apollon Pontou win 54.9%, draw 25.4%, Panserraikos win 19.7%. The pick is Apollon Pontou win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.