ScoreProb
Super League 2 Greece Round 10 2026

Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Asteras Tripolis II

Nestos Chrisoupolis Home · Elo 1,565
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Asteras Tripolis II Away · Elo 1,521
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nestos Chrisoupolis win
Nestos Chrisoupolis winPick
63.3%
Draw
20.6%
Asteras Tripolis II win
16.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Nestos Chrisoupolis history44 matches
Asteras Tripolis II history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Nestos Chrisoupolis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nestos Chrisoupolis are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,521. On rating alone Nestos Chrisoupolis would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Nestos Chrisoupolis score more

    1.48 goals a game over 44 matches for Nestos Chrisoupolis, against 1.18 over 34 for Asteras Tripolis II.

  • Nestos Chrisoupolis concede fewer

    Nestos Chrisoupolis concede 0.75 a game, Asteras Tripolis II 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Nestos Chrisoupolis matches, against 41% for Asteras Tripolis II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Asteras Tripolis II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1565.3
ELO
1521.4
44
ELO · Matches
34
1565.3
Current Team ELO
1521.4
1521.4
Current Opponent ELO
1565.3
43.88
Current ELO Difference
-43.88
0.56
Expected score
0.44
44
History Matches
34
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.25
Overperformance
51.65
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.50
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
34
1.86
PPG
1.38
56.8%
Win rate
38.2%
15.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
27.3%
Loss rate
38.2%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
38.6%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
18
2.26
PPG
1.00
73.9%
Win rate
22.2%
4.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
44.4%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
23
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.18
72.7%
Scoring rate
73.5%
34.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.78
Goals for per game
0.89
78.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
26.1%
BTTS rate
44.4%
44
History Matches
34
1.48
Goals Mean
1.18
1.36
Goals Std
1.01
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
1.21
54.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.52
Goals against per game
1.39
43.5%
Conceding rate
77.8%
44
History Matches
34
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.80
Conceded Std
0.87
18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
0.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
56.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
34
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.44
11.89
Stability score
2.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
34
16
Lead Matches
9
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.78
6
Trailing Matches
9
16.7%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.08
Rest days
231.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
16
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.36
Portability PPG Range
0.54
42.42
Portability Score
64.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.88
PPG0.48
GF0.30
GA-0.46
PPG1.26
PPG1.20
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate34.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate16.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate21.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score9.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate14.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate5.6%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.41
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-22.44
Rest days-150.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO43.88
Current Opponent ELO-43.88
Current ELO Difference87.76
Expected score0.13
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nestos Chrisoupolis

L
Nestos Chrisoupolis0–2Kalamata28 Oct · home
Pick: Kalamata 39% · hit
W
Olympiakos Piraeus II1–2Nestos Chrisoupolis24 Oct · away
Pick: Nestos Chrisoupolis 51% · hit
L
Nestos Chrisoupolis1–2Marko5 Oct · home
Pick: Nestos Chrisoupolis 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Asteras Tripolis II

D
Panthrakikos2–2Asteras Tripolis II25 Oct · away
Pick: Panthrakikos 62% · missed
W
Asteras Tripolis II2–0Anagennisi Karditsas4 Oct · home
Pick: Anagennisi Karditsas 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nestos Chrisoupolis and Asteras Tripolis II meet in Super League 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Nestos Chrisoupolis win 63.3%, draw 20.6%, Asteras Tripolis II win 16.1%. The pick is Nestos Chrisoupolis win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.