ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

Arges Pitesti vs Dinamo Bucuresti

Arges Pitesti Home · Elo 1,563
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Bucuresti Away · Elo 1,590
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Bucuresti win
Arges Pitesti win
31.7%
Draw
25.1%
Dinamo Bucuresti winPick
43.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

Arges Pitesti history75 matches
Dinamo Bucuresti history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Bucuresti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Bucuresti are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,563. On rating alone Dinamo Bucuresti would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 75 matches for Arges Pitesti, against 1.40 over 75 for Dinamo Bucuresti.

  • Arges Pitesti concede fewer

    Arges Pitesti concede 0.87 a game, Dinamo Bucuresti 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Arges Pitesti matches, against 44% for Dinamo Bucuresti. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arges Pitesti
Dinamo Bucuresti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.8
ELO
1590.0
75
ELO · Matches
75
1562.8
Current Team ELO
1590.0
1590.0
Current Opponent ELO
1562.8
-27.13
Current ELO Difference
27.13
0.46
Expected score
0.54
75
History Matches
75
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
53.47
Overperformance
54.40
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
75
1.67
PPG
1.53
48.0%
Win rate
41.3%
22.7%
Draw rate
29.3%
29.3%
Loss rate
29.3%
58.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
18.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
39
1.67
PPG
1.31
46.2%
Win rate
33.3%
28.2%
Draw rate
30.8%
25.6%
Loss rate
35.9%
59.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
28.2%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
39
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.40
73.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.36
71.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
43.6%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
16.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
75
History Matches
75
1.33
Goals Mean
1.40
1.27
Goals Std
1.17
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.7%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.87
Goals against per game
1.11
56.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.33
61.5%
Conceding rate
76.9%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.67
50.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
75
History Matches
75
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.11
0.91
Conceded Std
0.97
25.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
5.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
44.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.51
4.56
Stability score
1.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
75
27
Lead Matches
22
81.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
16
9.1%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
40
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.67
PPG
2.17
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.67
Current Competition PPG
2.17
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.14
57.01
Portability Score
51.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.13
PPG0.13
GF-0.07
GA-0.24
PPG-0.50
PPG0.36
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate12.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score3.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score5.67
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-27.13
Current Opponent ELO27.13
Current ELO Difference-54.26
Expected score-0.08
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arges Pitesti

W
Corona Braşov0–3Arges Pitesti28 Oct · away
Pick: Arges Pitesti 47% · hit
L
Arges Pitesti0–1Uta Arad24 Oct · home
Pick: Arges Pitesti 55% · missed
D
Universitatea Cluj2–2Arges Pitesti19 Oct · away
Pick: Universitatea Cluj 49% · missed
L
Arges Pitesti0–1CFR 1907 Cluj12 Oct · home
Pick: Arges Pitesti 40% · missed
L
Arges Pitesti0–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 Aug · home
Pick: Arges Pitesti 47% · missed

Dinamo Bucuresti

W
Dinamo Bucuresti2–0Uta Arad1 Nov · home
Pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 64% · hit
W
Dinamo Bucuresti5–2Chindia Targoviste28 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 50% · hit
W
Dinamo Bucuresti2–0FC Botosani16 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 63% · hit
D
Corvinul Hunedoara1–1Dinamo Bucuresti29 Aug · away
Pick: Corvinul Hunedoara 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arges Pitesti and Dinamo Bucuresti meet in Liga I on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Arges Pitesti win 31.7%, draw 25.1%, Dinamo Bucuresti win 43.2%. The pick is Dinamo Bucuresti win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.