ScoreProb
Liga I Romania Round 15 2026

Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Uta Arad Home · Elo 1,532
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Petrolul Ploiesti Away · Elo 1,502
Arena Francisc Neuman, Arad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Uta Arad win
Uta Arad winPick
40.1%
Draw
24.6%
Petrolul Ploiesti win
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Uta Arad history71 matches
Petrolul Ploiesti history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Uta Arad are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Uta Arad are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,502. On rating alone Uta Arad would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Uta Arad score more

    1.23 goals a game over 71 matches for Uta Arad, against 1.00 over 76 for Petrolul Ploiesti.

  • Defences are close

    Uta Arad concede 1.23 a game, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.28.

  • Uta Arad games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Uta Arad matches, against 36% for Petrolul Ploiesti. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uta Arad
Petrolul Ploiesti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.1
ELO
1501.7
71
ELO · Matches
76
1532.1
Current Team ELO
1501.7
1501.7
Current Opponent ELO
1532.1
30.48
Current ELO Difference
-30.48
0.54
Expected score
0.46
71
History Matches
76
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.88
Overperformance
49.36
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
76
1.44
PPG
1.12
38.0%
Win rate
26.3%
29.6%
Draw rate
32.9%
32.4%
Loss rate
40.8%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
35.5%
23.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
43
1.56
PPG
1.07
41.7%
Win rate
23.3%
30.6%
Draw rate
37.2%
27.8%
Loss rate
39.5%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
37.2%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
36
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.00
70.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
46.5%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.07
72.2%
Scoring rate
67.4%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
16.7%
71
History Matches
76
1.23
Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Goals Std
1.10
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
35.2%
Scored 2+ rate
21.1%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
9.2%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.28
67.6%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.30
58.3%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
76
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.19
Conceded Std
1.11
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.3%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
76
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.74
0.50
Stability score
1.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
76
17
Lead Matches
16
58.8%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.79
16
Trailing Matches
23
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.00
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
30
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.18
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.50
43.52
Portability Score
73.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO30.48
PPG0.32
GF0.23
GA-0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG0.49
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate25.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Conceded 2+ rate3.5%
Conceded 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.50
Portability Score-29.61
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO30.48
Current Opponent ELO-30.48
Current ELO Difference60.97
Expected score0.09
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Uta Arad

L
Dinamo Bucuresti2–0Uta Arad1 Nov · away
Pick: Dinamo Bucuresti 64% · hit
D
Uta Arad2–2FC Botosani27 Oct · home
Pick: Uta Arad 48% · missed
W
Arges Pitesti0–1Uta Arad24 Oct · away
Pick: Arges Pitesti 55% · missed
W
FCSB1–3Uta Arad30 Aug · away
Pick: FCSB 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Petrolul Ploiesti

W
Progresul Spartac0–6Petrolul Ploiesti27 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Spartac 37% · missed
L
Universitatea Cluj1–0Petrolul Ploiesti1 Sep · away
Pick: Universitatea Cluj 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Uta Arad and Petrolul Ploiesti meet in Liga I on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena Francisc Neuman, Arad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Uta Arad win 40.1%, draw 24.6%, Petrolul Ploiesti win 35.3%. The pick is Uta Arad win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.