ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Warrenpoint Town vs Queen's University

Warrenpoint Town Home · Elo 1,416
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Queen's University Away · Elo 1,521
Milltown, Warrenpoint Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Queen's University win
Warrenpoint Town win
34.0%
Draw
24.8%
Queen's University winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%

How much we know

Warrenpoint Town history49 matches
Queen's University history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Queen's University are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Queen's University are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,416. On rating alone Queen's University would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Queen's University score more

    1.20 goals a game over 49 matches for Warrenpoint Town, against 1.48 over 48 for Queen's University.

  • Defences are close

    Warrenpoint Town concede 1.55 a game, Queen's University 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Warrenpoint Town matches, against 46% for Queen's University. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Warrenpoint Town
Queen's University
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.5
ELO
1520.8
49
ELO · Matches
48
1416.5
Current Team ELO
1520.8
1520.8
Current Opponent ELO
1416.5
-104.3
Current ELO Difference
104.3
0.35
Expected score
0.65
49
History Matches
48
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
43.90
Overperformance
51.83
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
2.20
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
48
1.04
PPG
1.42
28.6%
Win rate
37.5%
18.4%
Draw rate
29.2%
53.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.29
PPG
1.26
37.5%
Win rate
34.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
21.7%
45.8%
Loss rate
43.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.48
55.1%
Scoring rate
68.8%
36.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.17
66.7%
Scoring rate
65.2%
45.8%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.20
Goals Mean
1.48
1.43
Goals Std
1.61
55.1%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.44
75.5%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.52
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.29
Conceded Std
1.21
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.8%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
44.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
44.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
48
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.12
8.48
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
45
12
Lead Matches
9
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
17
7.1%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.84
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
9
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.29
44.18
Portability Score
78.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-104.3
PPG-0.38
GF-0.28
GA0.11
PPG-0.25
PPG0.03
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate13.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score8.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.21
Portability Score-34.32
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-104.3
Current Opponent ELO104.3
Current ELO Difference-208.7
Expected score-0.29
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Warrenpoint Town

D
Ballinamallard United2–2Warrenpoint Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Queen's University

L
Queen's University2–4Glenavon FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Glenavon FC 37% · hit
L
Annagh United5–1Queen's University24 Oct · away
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit
D
Queen's University1–1Newry City AFC17 Oct · home
Pick: Queen's University 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Warrenpoint Town and Queen's University meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Milltown, Warrenpoint. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Warrenpoint Town win 34.0%, draw 24.8%, Queen's University win 41.2%. The pick is Queen's University win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.1%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.