ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Atl. San Luis U21 vs Juarez U21

Atl. San Luis U21 Home · Elo 1,482
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Juarez U21 Away · Elo 1,536
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atl. San Luis U21 win
Atl. San Luis U21 winPick
43.7%
Draw
26.7%
Juarez U21 win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%

How much we know

Atl. San Luis U21 history26 matches
Juarez U21 history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atl. San Luis U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Juarez U21 are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,482. On rating alone Juarez U21 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Atl. San Luis U21 score more

    1.38 goals a game over 26 matches for Atl. San Luis U21, against 1.03 over 33 for Juarez U21.

  • Juarez U21 concede fewer

    Atl. San Luis U21 concede 1.38 a game, Juarez U21 0.76.

  • Atl. San Luis U21 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Atl. San Luis U21 matches, against 33% for Juarez U21. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atl. San Luis U21
Juarez U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.2
ELO
1536.5
26
ELO · Matches
33
1482.2
Current Team ELO
1536.5
1536.5
Current Opponent ELO
1482.2
-54.33
Current ELO Difference
54.33
0.42
Expected score
0.58
26
History Matches
33
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
48.90
Overperformance
53.85
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
33
1.27
PPG
1.61
34.6%
Win rate
39.4%
23.1%
Draw rate
42.4%
42.3%
Loss rate
18.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
48.5%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
15
1.73
PPG
1.27
46.7%
Win rate
26.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
46.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
26.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
15
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.03
80.8%
Scoring rate
57.6%
61.5%
BTTS rate
27.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.93
73.3%
Scoring rate
53.3%
46.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
60.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
26
History Matches
33
1.38
Goals Mean
1.03
1.00
Goals Std
1.06
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
57.6%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
0.76
73.1%
Conceding rate
42.4%
0.93
Goals against per game
0.93
60.0%
Conceding rate
53.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.75
40.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
26
History Matches
33
1.38
Conceded Mean
0.76
1.11
Conceded Std
1.05
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.6%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.6%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.7%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
57.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.35
2.65
Stability score
5.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
33
9
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.79
6
Trailing Matches
5
16.7%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.27
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
14
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
8
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.25
20.0%
Win rate
25.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.41
92.11
Portability Score
71.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.33
PPG-0.34
GF0.35
GA0.63
PPG-0.05
PPG0.47
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate23.2%
Scored 2+ rate5.1%
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.63
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.31
Conceded 2+ rate24.9%
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-2.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.45
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score20.94
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-54.33
Current Opponent ELO54.33
Current ELO Difference-108.7
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-4.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atl. San Luis U21

W
Atl. San Luis U214–1Atlas U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Atl. San Luis U21 50% · hit
W
Atl. San Luis U213–2Queretaro U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Atl. San Luis U21 52% · hit
L
Toluca U214–1Atl. San Luis U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca U21 52% · hit
L
Monterrey U214–1Atl. San Luis U2130 Aug · away
Pick: Monterrey U21 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Juarez U21

W
Juarez U213–1Queretaro U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Juarez U21 51% · hit
W
Necaxa U212–3Juarez U2123 Oct · away
Pick: Juarez U21 38% · hit
L
Juarez U210–2Atlante U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Juarez U21 46% · missed
W
Cruz Azul U211–2Juarez U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Cruz Azul U21 40% · missed
L
Toluca U212–1Juarez U2130 Aug · away
Pick: Toluca U21 49% · hit

About this match

Atl. San Luis U21 and Juarez U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Atl. San Luis U21 win 43.7%, draw 26.7%, Juarez U21 win 29.6%. The pick is Atl. San Luis U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.2%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.