ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Atlante U21 vs Santos Laguna U21

Atlante U21 Home · Elo 1,503
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santos Laguna U21 Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santos Laguna U21 win
Atlante U21 win
35.4%
Draw
28.3%
Santos Laguna U21 winPick
36.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.1%
Under 2.549.9%

How much we know

Atlante U21 history5 matches
Santos Laguna U21 history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Santos Laguna U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,503 against 1,509. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atlante U21 score more

    1.40 goals a game over 5 matches for Atlante U21, against 1.23 over 30 for Santos Laguna U21.

  • Santos Laguna U21 concede fewer

    Atlante U21 concede 1.40 a game, Santos Laguna U21 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Atlante U21 matches, against 40% for Santos Laguna U21. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlante U21
Santos Laguna U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.0
ELO
1509.4
5
ELO · Matches
30
1503.0
Current Team ELO
1509.4
1509.4
Current Opponent ELO
1503.0
-6.33
Current ELO Difference
6.33
0.49
Expected score
0.51
5
History Matches
30
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.25
Overperformance
50.51
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
5
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
5
Matches
30
1.20
PPG
1.43
20.0%
Win rate
36.7%
60.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
0.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
16
0.50
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
31.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
2
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.23
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
80.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.31
50.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
5
History Matches
30
1.40
Goals Mean
1.23
1.02
Goals Std
1.15
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.13
80.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.19
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
5
History Matches
30
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.02
Conceded Std
1.12
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
5
History Matches
30
0.86
Result entropy
1.00
0.63
Goal Difference Std
1.68
13.50
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
5
Eligible Matches
28
0
Lead Matches
7
—
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.81
1
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
76.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
1
Normal Rest History Matches
15
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
3
Long Rest History Matches
12
0.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.63
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.14
—
Portability PPG Range
0.28
—
Portability Score
78.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
5
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-6.33
PPG-0.23
GF0.17
GA0.27
PPG0.00
PPG-0.75
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-25
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.3%
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches-25
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches-25
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-1.05
Stability score13.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.09
Eligible Matches-23
Lead Matches-7
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-23
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.80
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Current Team ELO-6.33
Current Opponent ELO6.33
Current ELO Difference-12.67
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-25
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlante U21

L
Guadalajara Chivas U212–1Atlante U2131 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara Chivas U21 50% · hit
W
Juarez U210–2Atlante U2120 Oct · away
Pick: Juarez U21 46% · missed
L
Atlante U210–2UNAM Pumas U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Atlante U21 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Santos Laguna U21

L
Santos Laguna U210–1Necaxa U211 Nov · home
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 50% · missed
W
Santos Laguna U213–1Queretaro U2117 Oct · home
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 47% · hit
W
Santos Laguna U211–0Tigres UANL U2129 Aug · home
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlante U21 and Santos Laguna U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Atlante U21 win 35.4%, draw 28.3%, Santos Laguna U21 win 36.3%. The pick is Santos Laguna U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.1%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.