ScoreProb
Liga MX U21 Mexico Round 16 2026

Necaxa U21 vs Club Tijuana U21

Necaxa U21 Home · Elo 1,464
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Club Tijuana U21 Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Tijuana U21 win
Necaxa U21 win
32.9%
Draw
27.2%
Club Tijuana U21 winPick
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Necaxa U21 history27 matches
Club Tijuana U21 history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Club Tijuana U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Tijuana U21 are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,506 against 1,464. On rating alone Club Tijuana U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Club Tijuana U21 score more

    1.07 goals a game over 27 matches for Necaxa U21, against 1.30 over 20 for Club Tijuana U21.

  • Defences are close

    Necaxa U21 concede 1.52 a game, Club Tijuana U21 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Necaxa U21 matches, against 55% for Club Tijuana U21. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Necaxa U21
Club Tijuana U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.5
ELO
1506.5
27
ELO · Matches
20
1463.5
Current Team ELO
1506.5
1506.5
Current Opponent ELO
1463.5
-42.96
Current ELO Difference
42.96
0.44
Expected score
0.56
27
History Matches
20
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.42
Overperformance
49.06
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
27
Matches
20
1.04
PPG
1.20
25.9%
Win rate
30.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
30.0%
48.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
14
1.07
PPG
0.86
21.4%
Win rate
21.4%
42.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
35.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
14
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.30
81.5%
Scoring rate
70.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
45.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.14
92.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
71.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
27
History Matches
20
1.07
Goals Mean
1.30
0.66
Goals Std
1.10
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
25.9%
Scored 2+ rate
45.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.40
77.8%
Conceding rate
65.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.79
78.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
20.0%
27
History Matches
20
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.03
Conceded Std
1.36
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
80.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
27
History Matches
20
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.87
4.25
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
20
6
Lead Matches
5
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.87
10
Trailing Matches
7
30.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.35
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.67
0.05
Portability PPG Range
1.33
95.65
Portability Score
42.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
27
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-42.96
PPG-0.16
GF-0.23
GA0.12
PPG-1.20
PPG0.21
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate11.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score3.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.29
Portability Score52.80
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO-42.96
Current Opponent ELO42.96
Current ELO Difference-85.92
Expected score-0.12
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Necaxa U21

W
Santos Laguna U210–1Necaxa U211 Nov · away
Pick: Santos Laguna U21 50% · missed
L
Necaxa U212–3Juarez U2123 Oct · home
Pick: Juarez U21 38% · hit
L
Necaxa U211–2Atlas U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Necaxa U21 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Club Tijuana U21

L
Monterrey U213–0Club Tijuana U2131 Oct · away
Pick: Monterrey U21 41% · hit
L
Toluca U215–0Club Tijuana U2121 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca U21 49% · hit
D
Club Tijuana U210–0Puebla U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Club Tijuana U21 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Necaxa U21 and Club Tijuana U21 meet in Liga MX U21 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Necaxa U21 win 32.9%, draw 27.2%, Club Tijuana U21 win 40.0%. The pick is Club Tijuana U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.