ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Atlante W vs Tigres UANL W

Atlante W Home · Elo 1,484
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tigres UANL W Away · Elo 1,651
Estadio Banorte, Ciudad de Mexico Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tigres UANL W win
Atlante W win
9.7%
Draw
11.9%
Tigres UANL W winPick
78.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%

How much we know

Atlante W history4 matches
Tigres UANL W history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 21:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Tigres UANL W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tigres UANL W are rated 167 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,484. On rating alone Tigres UANL W would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Tigres UANL W score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 4 matches for Atlante W, against 2.63 over 56 for Tigres UANL W.

  • Tigres UANL W concede fewer

    Atlante W concede 2.00 a game, Tigres UANL W 0.75.

  • Atlante W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    75% of Atlante W matches, against 61% for Tigres UANL W. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlante W
Tigres UANL W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.4
ELO
1651.2
4
ELO · Matches
56
1484.4
Current Team ELO
1651.2
1651.2
Current Opponent ELO
1484.4
-166.9
Current ELO Difference
166.9
0.28
Expected score
0.72
4
History Matches
56
-0.20
Residual Mean
0.13
46.74
Overperformance
59.42
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
0.75
PPG
2.40
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
25.0%
Win rate
80.0%
4
Matches
10
0.75
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
2.30
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
56
0.75
PPG
2.07
25.0%
Win rate
60.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.1%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
29
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
55.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
34.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
10.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
2
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
2.63
100.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.07
100.0%
Scoring rate
86.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
4
History Matches
56
1.00
Goals Mean
2.63
0.00
Goals Std
2.12
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
0.0%
Scored 2+ rate
66.1%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
41.1%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
0.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
51.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.86
50.0%
Conceding rate
58.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
4
History Matches
56
2.00
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.22
Conceded Std
0.85
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
56
0.51
Result entropy
0.84
1.22
Goal Difference Std
2.48
48.81
Stability score
15.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
56
0
Lead Matches
31
—
Lead Win Rate
83.9%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.88
2
Trailing Matches
9
0.0%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.00
Rest days
74.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
2
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.20
1
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.86
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.25
1
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.52
—
Portability PPG Range
1.23
—
Portability Score
49.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-166.9
PPG-1.32
GF-1.63
GA1.25
PPG-2.25
PPG-0.50
PPG-1.65
PPG-1.15
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-52
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-27
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-52
Goals Mean-1.63
Goals Std-2.12
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.66
Scored 3+ rate-0.41
Venue Goals Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.10
History Matches-52
Conceded Mean1.25
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate55.4%
Conceded 3+ rate46.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches-52
Result entropy-0.33
Goal Difference Std-1.25
Stability score33.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.39
Eligible Matches-52
Lead Matches-31
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.56
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-52
First Half Goals For Mean-1.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.25
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-1.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-2.20
Long Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.08
Current Team ELO-166.9
Current Opponent ELO166.9
Current ELO Difference-333.7
Expected score-0.45
History Matches-52
Residual Mean-0.32
Overperformance-12.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlante W

L
América W6–0Atlante W1 Nov · away
Pick: América W 83% · hit
L
Atlante W0–1Guadalajara W26 Oct · home
Pick: Guadalajara W 66% · hit
L
León W2–0Atlante W20 Oct · away
Pick: León W 64% · hit
L
Tijuana W1–0Atlante W4 Oct · away
Pick: Tijuana W 65% · hit
L
Santos Laguna W1–0Atlante W1 Sep · away
Pick: Santos Laguna W 46% · hit

Tigres UANL W

W
Atlas W0–7Tigres UANL W31 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres UANL W 75% · hit
D
Tigres UANL W2–2Monterrey W26 Oct · home
Pick: Tigres UANL W 53% · missed
W
Tigres UANL W2–0Querétaro W19 Oct · home
Pick: Tigres UANL W 86% · hit
D
Tigres UANL W1–1Atlético San Luis W28 Sep · home
Pick: Tigres UANL W 83% · missed
W
Tigres UANL W2–0Pachuca W30 Aug · home
Pick: Tigres UANL W 55% · hit

About this match

Atlante W and Tigres UANL W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 21:45 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Banorte, Ciudad de Mexico. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atlante W win 9.7%, draw 11.9%, Tigres UANL W win 78.4%. The pick is Tigres UANL W win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.2%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.