ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Querétaro W vs Toluca W

Querétaro W Home · Elo 1,350
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Toluca W Away · Elo 1,607
Estadio La Corregidora Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Toluca W win
Querétaro W win
11.1%
Draw
12.7%
Toluca W winPick
76.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%

How much we know

Querétaro W history38 matches
Toluca W history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 01:06 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (76.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Toluca W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Toluca W are rated 258 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,350. On rating alone Toluca W would be expected to take 82% of the points on offer.

  • Toluca W score far more

    0.82 goals a game over 38 matches for Querétaro W, against 1.98 over 48 for Toluca W.

  • Toluca W concede fewer

    Querétaro W concede 2.42 a game, Toluca W 1.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Querétaro W matches, against 63% for Toluca W. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Querétaro W
Toluca W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1349.5
ELO
1607.2
38
ELO · Matches
48
1349.5
Current Team ELO
1607.2
1607.2
Current Opponent ELO
1349.5
-257.7
Current ELO Difference
257.7
0.18
Expected score
0.82
38
History Matches
48
-0.21
Residual Mean
0.10
36.35
Overperformance
57.32
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.50
Goals for per game
2.10
2.60
Goals against per game
1.90
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.97
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
48
0.47
PPG
1.81
7.9%
Win rate
54.2%
23.7%
Draw rate
18.8%
68.4%
Loss rate
27.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
26
0.50
PPG
1.69
6.3%
Win rate
50.0%
31.3%
Draw rate
19.2%
62.5%
Loss rate
30.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
16
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.82
Goals for per game
1.98
55.3%
Scoring rate
81.3%
47.4%
BTTS rate
62.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.73
62.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
56.3%
BTTS rate
65.4%
0.75
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
38
History Matches
48
0.82
Goals Mean
1.98
0.88
Goals Std
1.48
55.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
21.1%
Scored 2+ rate
60.4%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.42
Goals against per game
1.48
81.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.50
87.5%
Conceding rate
84.6%
2.50
Goals against per game
0.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
38
History Matches
48
2.42
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.86
Conceded Std
1.37
63.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
44.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
2.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
44.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
48
0.73
Result entropy
0.91
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.08
27.07
Stability score
9.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
48
5
Lead Matches
17
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
18
6.7%
Non-loss rate
55.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
22.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.03
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.27
1.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.09
Rest days
73.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
20
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.50
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.20
65.74
Portability Score
50.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-257.7
PPG-1.34
GF-1.16
GA0.94
PPG-1.75
PPG-1.19
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate26.0%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-1.16
Goals Std-0.59
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.39
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.94
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate23.6%
Conceded 3+ rate32.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score18.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.48
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.49
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score15.24
Rest days2.95
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.42
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Current Team ELO-257.7
Current Opponent ELO257.7
Current ELO Difference-515.3
Expected score-0.63
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.31
Overperformance-20.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Querétaro W

L
Tigres UANL W2–0Querétaro W19 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres UANL W 86% · hit
L
Querétaro W0–4Monterrey W29 Aug · home
Pick: Monterrey W 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Toluca W

L
Toluca W2–3Guadalajara W31 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca W 42% · missed
W
Cruz Azul W1–2Toluca W25 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca W 51% · hit
D
Toluca W0–0Santos Laguna W20 Oct · home
Pick: Toluca W 79% · missed
W
Pachuca W1–2Toluca W5 Oct · away
Pick: Pachuca W 53% · missed
W
Toluca W1–0León W29 Aug · home
Pick: Toluca W 65% · hit

About this match

Querétaro W and Toluca W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 01:06 UTC. The match is played at Estadio La Corregidora. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Querétaro W win 11.1%, draw 12.7%, Toluca W win 76.2%. The pick is Toluca W win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.