ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

Atletico Paranaense Home · Elo 1,629
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vasco DA Gama Away · Elo 1,525
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba Referee: R. Abatti Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Paranaense win
Atletico Paranaense winPick
51.3%
Draw
23.2%
Vasco DA Gama win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Atletico Paranaense history67 matches
Vasco DA Gama history93 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 22:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Atletico Paranaense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Paranaense are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,525. On rating alone Atletico Paranaense would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Atletico Paranaense score more

    1.48 goals a game over 67 matches for Atletico Paranaense, against 1.23 over 93 for Vasco DA Gama.

  • Atletico Paranaense concede fewer

    Atletico Paranaense concede 0.94 a game, Vasco DA Gama 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Atletico Paranaense matches, against 49% for Vasco DA Gama. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.2
ELO
1525.3
67
ELO · Matches
93
1629.2
Current Team ELO
1525.3
1525.3
Current Opponent ELO
1629.2
103.9
Current ELO Difference
-103.9
0.65
Expected score
0.35
67
History Matches
93
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
56.53
Overperformance
51.42
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
93
1.79
PPG
1.22
52.2%
Win rate
31.2%
22.4%
Draw rate
28.0%
25.4%
Loss rate
40.9%
71.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
49.5%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
46
2.00
PPG
0.98
60.0%
Win rate
23.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
26.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
30
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.23
77.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
49.3%
BTTS rate
47.3%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.13
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.0%
36.7%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.89
83.3%
Scoring rate
63.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
67
History Matches
93
1.48
Goals Mean
1.23
1.11
Goals Std
1.23
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
49.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.29
64.2%
Conceding rate
71.0%
0.63
Goals against per game
1.48
53.3%
Conceding rate
73.9%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.63
61.1%
Conceding rate
89.5%
67
History Matches
93
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.93
Conceded Std
1.17
22.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.6%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
0.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
93
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.84
6.95
Stability score
1.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
93
26
Lead Matches
26
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.78
19
Trailing Matches
27
31.6%
Non-loss rate
37.0%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
18.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
93
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.98
Rest days
73.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
17
1.86
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.18
34
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
25
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
19
2.00
PPG
0.89
61.1%
Win rate
21.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.3%
22.2%
Loss rate
52.6%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
18
Current Competition Matches
19
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.89
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.74
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.11
48.86
Portability Score
60.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
93
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO103.9
PPG0.58
GF0.25
GA-0.35
PPG1.11
PPG1.02
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate20.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-26
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate17.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-26
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.35
Stability score5.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-11.29
Rest days-1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.68
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO103.9
Current Opponent ELO-103.9
Current ELO Difference207.9
Expected score0.29
History Matches-26
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Paranaense

L
Gremio2–0Atletico Paranaense30 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 37% · missed
D
Vitoria1–1Atletico Paranaense24 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 38% · missed
L
Atletico Paranaense0–2Palmeiras17 Oct · home
Pick: Palmeiras 39% · hit
W
Chapecoense-sc1–4Atletico Paranaense12 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 44% · hit
D
Atletico Paranaense2–2Atletico-MG8 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 41% · missed

Vasco DA Gama

L
Palmeiras1–0Vasco DA Gama1 Nov · away
Pick: Palmeiras 50% · hit
L
Vasco DA Gama1–4Flamengo29 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo 50% · hit
W
Vasco DA Gama3–2Corinthians24 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 35% · hit
L
Vasco DA Gama1–3Boca Juniors21 Oct · home
Pick: Vasco DA Gama 39% · missed
L
Sao Paulo1–0Vasco DA Gama18 Oct · away
Pick: Sao Paulo 48% · hit

About this match

Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama meet in Serie A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:30 UTC. The match is played at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atletico Paranaense win 51.3%, draw 23.2%, Vasco DA Gama win 25.5%. The pick is Atletico Paranaense win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.