ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

Botafogo Home · Elo 1,589
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletico-MG Away · Elo 1,603
Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro Referee: L. Casagrande Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botafogo win
Botafogo winPick
43.0%
Draw
30.7%
Atletico-MG win
26.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.7%
Under 2.555.3%

How much we know

Botafogo history93 matches
Atletico-MG history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Botafogo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,589 against 1,603. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 93 matches for Botafogo, against 1.28 over 95 for Atletico-MG.

  • Atletico-MG concede fewer

    Botafogo concede 1.05 a game, Atletico-MG 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Botafogo matches, against 38% for Atletico-MG. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botafogo
Atletico-MG
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.7
ELO
1603.4
93
ELO · Matches
95
1588.7
Current Team ELO
1603.4
1603.4
Current Opponent ELO
1588.7
-14.72
Current ELO Difference
14.72
0.48
Expected score
0.52
93
History Matches
95
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.52
Overperformance
54.19
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
93
Matches
95
1.54
PPG
1.59
44.1%
Win rate
42.1%
21.5%
Draw rate
32.6%
34.4%
Loss rate
25.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
37.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
49
1.93
PPG
1.18
56.8%
Win rate
30.6%
22.7%
Draw rate
26.5%
20.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.6%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
44
History Matches
49
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.28
66.7%
Scoring rate
71.6%
40.9%
BTTS rate
45.3%
1.68
Goals for per game
0.92
84.1%
Scoring rate
59.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.33
84.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
73.7%
BTTS rate
55.6%
93
History Matches
95
1.28
Goals Mean
1.28
1.18
Goals Std
1.16
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.05
Goals against per game
0.92
66.7%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.04
61.4%
Conceding rate
65.3%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.22
84.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
93
History Matches
95
1.05
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.06
Conceded Std
0.89
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.2%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
38.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
93
History Matches
95
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.44
3.63
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
93
Eligible Matches
95
32
Lead Matches
28
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.81
28
Trailing Matches
22
28.6%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
93
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.06
Rest days
74.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
17
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
56
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
16
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.42
PPG
1.33
36.8%
Win rate
33.3%
31.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
31.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.42
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.32
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.11
12
Competition Season Count
8
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.38
Portability PPG Range
1.70
58.64
Portability Score
48.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
93
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.72
PPG-0.05
GF0.00
GA0.14
PPG0.09
PPG0.75
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate5.1%
Scored 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.95
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score1.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.95
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score10.44
Rest days-2.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.04
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO-14.72
Current Opponent ELO14.72
Current ELO Difference-29.44
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botafogo

L
Remo2–1Botafogo29 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo 36% · missed
L
Internacional3–0Botafogo24 Oct · away
Pick: Internacional 38% · hit
W
Botafogo1–0Chapecoense-sc17 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo 61% · hit
D
Coritiba1–1Botafogo12 Oct · away
Pick: Botafogo 36% · missed
L
Botafogo1–2Vasco DA Gama7 Oct · home
Pick: Botafogo 50% · missed

Atletico-MG

L
Gremio2–0Atletico-MG1 Nov · away
Pick: Gremio 43% · hit
L
Atletico-MG0–1Cruzeiro29 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 47% · missed
L
Flamengo3–2Atletico-MG26 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 56% · hit
L
Atletico Torque2–0Atletico-MG21 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Torque 35% · hit
W
Atletico-MG1–0Coritiba17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 50% · hit

About this match

Botafogo and Atletico-MG meet in Serie A on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Botafogo win 43.0%, draw 30.7%, Atletico-MG win 26.3%. The pick is Botafogo win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.7%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.