Atlético Pulpileño vs San Javier
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Pulpileño win
Atlético Pulpileño winPick
59.3%
Draw
26.4%
San Javier win
14.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes45.2%
No54.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.7%
Under 2.558.3%
How much we know
Atlético Pulpileño history55 matches
San Javier history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atlético Pulpileño
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Atlético Pulpileño are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atlético Pulpileño are rated 29 Elo points higher
Elo 1,529 against 1,500. On rating alone Atlético Pulpileño would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Javier@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1528.8
ELO
1500.0
55
ELO · Matches
0
1528.8
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1528.8
28.80
Current ELO Difference
-28.80
0.54
Expected score
0.46
55
History Matches
0
0.02
Residual Mean
—
51.77
Overperformance
—
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
1.60
PPG
—
0.60
Goals for per game
—
0.40
Goals against per game
—
40.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
1.60
PPG
—
0.90
Goals for per game
—
0.70
Goals against per game
—
40.0%
Win rate
—
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
0
1.47
PPG
—
38.2%
Win rate
—
32.7%
Draw rate
—
29.1%
Loss rate
—
41.8%
Over 1.5 rate
—
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
10.9%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
0
1.96
PPG
—
55.6%
Win rate
—
29.6%
Draw rate
—
14.8%
Loss rate
—
25.9%
Over 1.5 rate
—
11.1%
Over 2.5 rate
—
7.4%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
27
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.84
Goals for per game
—
63.6%
Scoring rate
—
30.9%
BTTS rate
—
0.93
Goals for per game
—
66.7%
Scoring rate
—
18.5%
BTTS rate
—
55
History Matches
0
0.84
Goals Mean
—
0.83
Goals Std
—
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
—
14.5%
Scored 2+ rate
—
3.6%
Scored 3+ rate
—
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
—
49.1%
Conceding rate
—
0.37
Goals against per game
—
33.3%
Conceding rate
—
55
History Matches
0
0.75
Conceded Mean
—
0.90
Conceded Std
—
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
0.37
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
—
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
—
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
50.9%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
0
0.99
Result entropy
—
1.15
Goal Difference Std
—
0.57
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
0
8
Lead Matches
0
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.79
Lead Points Retention
—
11
Trailing Matches
0
9.1%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
188.0
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
0
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.12
Portability PPG Std
—
0.29
Portability PPG Range
—
80.61
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO28.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches55
History Matches27
History Matches55
History Matches55
History Matches55
Eligible Matches55
Lead Matches8
Trailing Matches11
Halftime Coverage Matches55
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches30
Long Rest History Matches23
Current Team ELO28.80
Current Opponent ELO-28.80
Current ELO Difference57.59
Expected score0.08
History Matches55
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Atlético Pulpileño
W
Atlético Pulpileño3–2Cartagena LU II31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · hit L
Santa Cruz3–2Atlético Pulpileño24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · missed L
Atlético Pulpileño2–3Santomera4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
San Javier
L
Santomera4–0San Javier24 Oct · away
Pick: Santomera 70% · hit W
San Javier1–0Los Garres4 Oct · home
Pick: San Javier 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Atlético Pulpileño and San Javier meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atlético Pulpileño win 59.3%, draw 26.4%, San Javier win 14.4%. The pick is Atlético Pulpileño win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.7%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.