ScoreProb
Log in
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 11 2026

Mazarrón FC vs Balsicas Atlético

Mazarrón FC Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Balsicas Atlético Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Balsicas Atlético win
Mazarrón FC win
33.2%
Draw
30.9%
Balsicas Atlético winPick
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.4%
No49.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

Mazarrón FC history35 matches
Balsicas Atlético history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Balsicas Atlético are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mazarrón FC are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,480. On rating alone Mazarrón FC would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Mazarrón FC score more

    1.40 goals a game over 35 matches for Mazarrón FC, against 1.16 over 49 for Balsicas Atlético.

  • Mazarrón FC concede fewer

    Mazarrón FC concede 1.00 a game, Balsicas Atlético 1.16.

  • Balsicas Atlético games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Mazarrón FC matches, against 49% for Balsicas Atlético. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mazarrón FC
Balsicas Atlético@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.1
ELO
1479.6
35
ELO · Matches
49
1543.1
Current Team ELO
1479.6
1479.6
Current Opponent ELO
1543.1
63.53
Current ELO Difference
-63.53
0.59
Expected score
0.41
35
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.07
Overperformance
48.35
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
49
1.54
PPG
1.27
37.1%
Win rate
32.7%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
20.0%
Loss rate
38.8%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
31.4%
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
16.3%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
25
1.67
PPG
1.00
44.4%
Win rate
24.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
48.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
52.0%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
18
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
1.16
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.3%
BTTS rate
55.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.72
83.3%
Scoring rate
56.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
35
History Matches
49
1.40
Goals Mean
1.16
1.20
Goals Std
1.09
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
26.5%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.16
68.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.24
61.1%
Conceding rate
68.0%
35
History Matches
49
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.89
Conceded Std
1.02
22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.58
4.16
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
49
11
Lead Matches
13
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.72
8
Trailing Matches
15
37.5%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
174.3
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
15
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.27
—
Portability PPG Range
0.53
—
Portability Score
65.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO63.53
PPG0.28
GF0.24
GA-0.16
PPG0.67
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score3.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate10.8%
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-13.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO63.53
Current Opponent ELO-63.53
Current ELO Difference127.1
Expected score0.18
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance5.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mazarrón FC

L
Algar2–1Mazarrón FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Algar 35% · hit
L
Mazarrón FC0–1SFC Minerva4 Oct · home
Pick: Mazarrón FC 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Balsicas Atlético

W
Balsicas Atlético2–1Cartagena LU II25 Oct · home
Pick: Balsicas Atlético 34% · hit
W
Balsicas Atlético4–1Bullas Deportivo14 Oct · home
Pick: Balsicas Atlético 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mazarrón FC and Balsicas Atlético meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Mazarrón FC win 33.2%, draw 30.9%, Balsicas Atlético win 35.9%. The pick is Balsicas Atlético win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.