Santa Cruz vs UCAM Murcia II
Match result probability Model pick: UCAM Murcia II win
Santa Cruz win
26.8%
Draw
30.1%
UCAM Murcia II winPick
43.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.3%
No49.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.4%
Under 2.553.6%
How much we know
Santa Cruz history29 matches
UCAM Murcia II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours UCAM Murcia II
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why UCAM Murcia II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
UCAM Murcia II are rated 60 Elo points higher
Elo 1,552 against 1,493. On rating alone UCAM Murcia II would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
UCAM Murcia II score more
1.03 goals a game over 29 matches for Santa Cruz, against 1.45 over 49 for UCAM Murcia II.
-
Defences are close
Santa Cruz concede 1.07 a game, UCAM Murcia II 1.10.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
41% of Santa Cruz matches, against 45% for UCAM Murcia II. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UCAM Murcia II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1492.6
ELO
1552.3
29
ELO · Matches
49
1492.6
Current Team ELO
1552.3
1552.3
Current Opponent ELO
1492.6
-59.69
Current ELO Difference
59.69
0.41
Expected score
0.59
29
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.46
Overperformance
54.21
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
2.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals 90
29
Matches
49
1.31
PPG
1.47
37.9%
Win rate
34.7%
17.2%
Draw rate
42.9%
44.8%
Loss rate
22.4%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
15
Matches
23
0.87
PPG
1.65
20.0%
Win rate
43.5%
26.7%
Draw rate
34.8%
53.3%
Loss rate
21.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
15
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
1.45
58.6%
Scoring rate
73.5%
31.0%
BTTS rate
51.0%
0.73
Goals for per game
1.70
53.3%
Scoring rate
78.3%
40.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
29
History Matches
49
1.03
Goals Mean
1.45
1.13
Goals Std
1.25
58.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
27.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
13.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
0.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.10
62.1%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.17
73.3%
Conceding rate
69.6%
29
History Matches
49
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Conceded Std
0.97
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
29
History Matches
49
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.59
6.20
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
29
Eligible Matches
49
4
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
11
23.1%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.21
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
188.2
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
13
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.26
—
Portability PPG Range
0.51
—
Portability Score
66.17
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
29
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-59.69
PPG-0.16
GF-0.41
GA-0.03
PPG-0.79
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate24.9%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score3.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate37.5%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-59.69
Current Opponent ELO59.69
Current ELO Difference-119.4
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Santa Cruz
W
Santa Cruz2–0Unión Molinense31 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Molinense 46% · missed W
Santa Cruz3–2Atlético Pulpileño24 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · missed D
Alcantarilla1–1Santa Cruz4 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Cruz 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
UCAM Murcia II
W
UCAM Murcia II2–1Alcantarilla24 Oct · home
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 64% · hit L
Olímpico Totana1–0UCAM Murcia II4 Oct · away
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Santa Cruz and UCAM Murcia II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Santa Cruz win 26.8%, draw 30.1%, UCAM Murcia II win 43.2%. The pick is UCAM Murcia II win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.4%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.