ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Championship Group - 6 2026

Aucas vs Independiente del Valle

Aucas Home · Elo 1,552
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Independiente del Valle Away · Elo 1,740
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Independiente del Valle win
Aucas win
20.7%
Draw
21.7%
Independiente del Valle winPick
57.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

Aucas history68 matches
Independiente del Valle history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Independiente del Valle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Independiente del Valle are rated 187 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,740 against 1,552. On rating alone Independiente del Valle would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Independiente del Valle score more

    1.31 goals a game over 68 matches for Aucas, against 1.92 over 88 for Independiente del Valle.

  • Independiente del Valle concede fewer

    Aucas concede 1.21 a game, Independiente del Valle 0.93.

  • Independiente del Valle games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Aucas matches, against 53% for Independiente del Valle. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aucas
Independiente del Valle
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.4
ELO
1739.7
68
ELO · Matches
88
1552.4
Current Team ELO
1739.7
1739.7
Current Opponent ELO
1552.4
-187.3
Current ELO Difference
187.3
0.25
Expected score
0.75
68
History Matches
88
0.04
Residual Mean
0.13
52.78
Overperformance
60.39
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
3.00
1.10
Goals for per game
2.60
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
88
1.47
PPG
2.17
39.7%
Win rate
65.9%
27.9%
Draw rate
19.3%
32.4%
Loss rate
14.8%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.7%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
46
1.67
PPG
2.17
48.5%
Win rate
67.4%
21.2%
Draw rate
15.2%
30.3%
Loss rate
17.4%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
33
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.92
79.4%
Scoring rate
88.6%
51.5%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.96
78.8%
Scoring rate
87.0%
51.5%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.13
Goals for per game
2.46
70.8%
Scoring rate
92.3%
37.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
88
1.31
Goals Mean
1.92
1.22
Goals Std
1.30
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
88.6%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.7%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.21
Goals against per game
0.93
63.2%
Conceding rate
61.4%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.04
66.7%
Conceding rate
63.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.00
58.3%
Conceding rate
57.7%
68
History Matches
88
1.21
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.28
Conceded Std
0.99
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.4%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
88
0.99
Result entropy
0.80
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.70
0.96
Stability score
20.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
88
22
Lead Matches
46
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
15
29.4%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
88
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
78.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.16
30
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
26
1.58
PPG
2.58
45.8%
Win rate
84.6%
20.8%
Draw rate
3.8%
33.3%
Loss rate
11.5%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
24
Current Competition Matches
26
1.58
Current Competition PPG
2.58
0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.46
6
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.21
Portability PPG Range
1.24
82.31
Portability Score
50.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-187.3
PPG-0.70
GF-0.61
GA0.27
PPG-0.99
PPG-0.51
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate9.2%
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-20
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-19.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.60
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.27
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.99
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.42
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.39
Portability PPG Range-1.03
Portability Score32.24
Rest days-1.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Current Team ELO-187.3
Current Opponent ELO187.3
Current ELO Difference-374.6
Expected score-0.49
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aucas

W
Universidad Catolica1–2Aucas1 Nov · away
Pick: Universidad Catolica 55% · missed
W
Aucas1–0Libertad30 Aug · home
Pick: Aucas 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Independiente del Valle

W
Independiente del Valle2–0LDU de Quito1 Nov · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 54% · hit
W
Delfin SC0–3Independiente del Valle29 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 40% · hit
D
Independiente del Valle2–2Universidad Catolica29 Aug · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · missed
W
Independiente del Valle3–1Deportes Tolima26 Aug · home
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aucas and Independiente del Valle meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aucas win 20.7%, draw 21.7%, Independiente del Valle win 57.6%. The pick is Independiente del Valle win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.