ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Relegation Group - 6 2026

Tecnico Universitario vs Manta FC

Tecnico Universitario Home · Elo 1,403
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manta FC Away · Elo 1,397
Estadio Bellavista, Ambato Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tecnico Universitario win
Tecnico Universitario winPick
48.1%
Draw
25.7%
Manta FC win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Tecnico Universitario history64 matches
Manta FC history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tecnico Universitario are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,403 against 1,397. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.83 goals a game over 64 matches for Tecnico Universitario, against 0.89 over 64 for Manta FC.

  • Defences are close

    Tecnico Universitario concede 1.44 a game, Manta FC 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Tecnico Universitario matches, against 39% for Manta FC. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tecnico Universitario
Manta FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1403.1
ELO
1397.1
64
ELO · Matches
64
1403.1
Current Team ELO
1397.1
1397.1
Current Opponent ELO
1403.1
6.01
Current ELO Difference
-6.01
0.51
Expected score
0.49
64
History Matches
64
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.08
44.27
Overperformance
43.90
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.50
0.60
Goals for per game
0.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
64
0.91
PPG
0.88
23.4%
Win rate
20.3%
20.3%
Draw rate
26.6%
56.3%
Loss rate
53.1%
64.1%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
42.2%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.4%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
0.94
PPG
0.58
22.6%
Win rate
12.1%
25.8%
Draw rate
21.2%
51.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.83
Goals for per game
0.89
60.9%
Scoring rate
53.1%
45.3%
BTTS rate
46.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.61
67.7%
Scoring rate
45.5%
54.8%
BTTS rate
42.4%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.46
57.7%
Scoring rate
38.5%
38.5%
BTTS rate
30.8%
64
History Matches
64
0.83
Goals Mean
0.89
0.84
Goals Std
1.05
60.9%
Scored 1+ rate
53.1%
17.2%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
3.1%
Scored 3+ rate
7.8%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.52
76.6%
Conceding rate
85.9%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.73
80.6%
Conceding rate
93.9%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.42
80.8%
Conceding rate
84.6%
64
History Matches
64
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.18
Conceded Std
1.10
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
42.3%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
46.9%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.1%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
64
0.90
Result entropy
0.92
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.42
10.12
Stability score
7.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
64
14
Lead Matches
9
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.93
21
Trailing Matches
25
4.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
37
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
26
1.00
PPG
0.65
30.8%
Win rate
15.4%
7.7%
Draw rate
19.2%
61.5%
Loss rate
65.4%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
26
Current Competition Matches
26
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.65
-0.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.96
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.12
Portability PPG Range
0.43
89.47
Portability Score
69.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO6.01
PPG0.03
GF-0.06
GA-0.08
PPG0.35
PPG0.36
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate1.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score2.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.42
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score19.63
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO6.01
Current Opponent ELO-6.01
Current ELO Difference12.03
Expected score0.02
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tecnico Universitario

D
Orense SC1–1Tecnico Universitario2 Nov · away
Pick: Orense SC 50% · missed
W
Tecnico Universitario3–0Mushuc Runa SC26 Oct · home
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 47% · missed
L
Deportivo Cuenca2–1Tecnico Universitario16 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Cuenca 51% · hit
L
Delfin SC1–0Tecnico Universitario1 Sep · away
Pick: Delfin SC 43% · hit
W
Tecnico Universitario3–1Deportivo Cuenca29 Aug · home
Pick: Tecnico Universitario 39% · hit

Manta FC

W
Mushuc Runa SC2–3Manta FC3 Nov · away
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 57% · missed
L
Manta FC0–2Deportivo Cuenca24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Cuenca 42% · hit
W
Manta FC2–0Barcelona SC30 Aug · home
Pick: Barcelona SC 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tecnico Universitario and Manta FC meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tecnico Universitario win 48.1%, draw 25.7%, Manta FC win 26.2%. The pick is Tecnico Universitario win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.