ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Championship Group - 6 2026

Barcelona SC vs LDU de Quito

Barcelona SC Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
LDU de Quito Away · Elo 1,607
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, Guayaquil Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barcelona SC win
Barcelona SC winPick
40.7%
Draw
29.0%
LDU de Quito win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.6%
No55.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.538.4%
Under 2.561.6%

How much we know

Barcelona SC history76 matches
LDU de Quito history92 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Barcelona SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • LDU de Quito are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,551. On rating alone LDU de Quito would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • LDU de Quito score more

    1.13 goals a game over 76 matches for Barcelona SC, against 1.48 over 92 for LDU de Quito.

  • LDU de Quito concede fewer

    Barcelona SC concede 1.04 a game, LDU de Quito 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Barcelona SC matches, against 40% for LDU de Quito. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barcelona SC
LDU de Quito
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.1
ELO
1606.6
76
ELO · Matches
92
1551.1
Current Team ELO
1606.6
1606.6
Current Opponent ELO
1551.1
-55.57
Current ELO Difference
55.57
0.42
Expected score
0.58
76
History Matches
92
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
52.81
Overperformance
54.90
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
92
1.53
PPG
1.73
42.1%
Win rate
48.9%
26.3%
Draw rate
26.1%
31.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
60.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.8%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.2%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
44
1.62
PPG
1.36
43.6%
Win rate
36.4%
30.8%
Draw rate
27.3%
25.6%
Loss rate
36.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
38.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
39
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.48
72.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
42.1%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.07
82.1%
Scoring rate
68.2%
48.7%
BTTS rate
47.7%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.04
71.4%
Scoring rate
64.0%
38.1%
BTTS rate
32.0%
76
History Matches
92
1.13
Goals Mean
1.48
0.99
Goals Std
1.23
72.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
27.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
0.90
63.2%
Conceding rate
62.0%
0.95
Goals against per game
1.05
64.1%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.62
Goals against per game
0.76
52.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
76
History Matches
92
1.04
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.04
Conceded Std
0.91
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
47.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
92
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.74
Stability score
4.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
92
25
Lead Matches
33
76.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
20
18.2%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
92
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.85
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.42
43
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
25
1.62
PPG
1.64
42.9%
Win rate
48.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
23.8%
Loss rate
32.0%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
24.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
4.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
21
Current Competition Matches
25
1.62
Current Competition PPG
1.64
0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.28
8
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.22
62.82
Portability Score
85.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
92
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-55.57
PPG-0.20
GF-0.35
GA0.14
PPG-0.02
PPG0.25
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.93
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-4
Current Competition PPG-0.02
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-22.69
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.43
Normal Rest History Matches-21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-55.57
Current Opponent ELO55.57
Current ELO Difference-111.1
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-2.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barcelona SC

L
Manta FC2–0Barcelona SC30 Aug · away
Pick: Barcelona SC 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

LDU de Quito

L
Independiente del Valle2–0LDU de Quito1 Nov · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 54% · hit
D
Universidad Catolica2–2LDU de Quito30 Oct · away
Pick: LDU de Quito 36% · missed
L
LDU de Quito1–2Macara24 Oct · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 48% · missed
L
Guayaquil City FC2–1LDU de Quito29 Aug · away
Pick: LDU de Quito 35% · missed
W
LDU de Quito2–0Emelec24 Aug · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 62% · hit

About this match

Barcelona SC and LDU de Quito meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, Guayaquil. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Barcelona SC win 40.7%, draw 29.0%, LDU de Quito win 30.3%. The pick is Barcelona SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 38.4%. Both teams to score: 44.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.