ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Championship Group - 6 2026

Macara vs Universidad Catolica

Macara Home · Elo 1,575
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Universidad Catolica Away · Elo 1,567
Estadio Bellavista, Ambato Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Universidad Catolica win
Macara win
33.0%
Draw
28.4%
Universidad Catolica winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Macara history74 matches
Universidad Catolica history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Universidad Catolica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,575 against 1,567. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Universidad Catolica score more

    1.19 goals a game over 74 matches for Macara, against 1.68 over 79 for Universidad Catolica.

  • Macara concede fewer

    Macara concede 0.92 a game, Universidad Catolica 1.16.

  • Universidad Catolica games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Macara matches, against 51% for Universidad Catolica. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Macara
Universidad Catolica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1574.5
ELO
1567.4
74
ELO · Matches
79
1574.5
Current Team ELO
1567.4
1567.4
Current Opponent ELO
1574.5
7.11
Current ELO Difference
-7.11
0.51
Expected score
0.49
74
History Matches
79
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.55
Overperformance
53.05
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
79
1.51
PPG
1.56
40.5%
Win rate
41.8%
29.7%
Draw rate
30.4%
29.7%
Loss rate
27.8%
64.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.6%
12.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
41
1.46
PPG
1.27
37.1%
Win rate
31.7%
34.3%
Draw rate
31.7%
28.6%
Loss rate
36.6%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
11.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
35
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.68
71.6%
Scoring rate
82.3%
43.2%
BTTS rate
60.8%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.34
71.4%
Scoring rate
78.0%
45.7%
BTTS rate
63.4%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.73
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.8%
45.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
79
1.19
Goals Mean
1.68
1.04
Goals Std
1.36
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.3%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.16
60.8%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.24
62.9%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.88
62.5%
Conceding rate
61.5%
74
History Matches
79
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.98
Conceded Std
1.02
21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.1%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
39.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.72
1.03
Stability score
1.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
79
20
Lead Matches
20
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.93
18
Trailing Matches
22
27.8%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
41
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
26
1.63
PPG
1.65
45.8%
Win rate
46.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
29.2%
Loss rate
26.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
24
Current Competition Matches
26
1.63
Current Competition PPG
1.65
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.85
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.13
Portability PPG Range
1.25
89.46
Portability Score
51.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.11
PPG-0.04
GF-0.49
GA-0.25
PPG-0.03
PPG0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate15.2%
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-0.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.03
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.12
Portability Score37.83
Rest days-2.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO7.11
Current Opponent ELO-7.11
Current ELO Difference14.22
Expected score0.02
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Macara

W
LDU de Quito1–2Macara24 Oct · away
Pick: LDU de Quito 48% · missed
W
Orense SC1–2Macara30 Aug · away
Pick: Macara 41% · hit
L
Libertad1–0Macara25 Aug · away
Pick: Macara 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Universidad Catolica

L
Universidad Catolica1–2Aucas1 Nov · home
Pick: Universidad Catolica 55% · missed
D
Universidad Catolica2–2LDU de Quito30 Oct · home
Pick: LDU de Quito 36% · missed
D
Independiente del Valle2–2Universidad Catolica29 Aug · away
Pick: Independiente del Valle 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Macara and Universidad Catolica meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Bellavista, Ambato. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Macara win 33.0%, draw 28.4%, Universidad Catolica win 38.6%. The pick is Universidad Catolica win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.