ScoreProb
Liga Pro Ecuador Relegation Group - 6 2026

Deportivo Cuenca vs Orense SC

Deportivo Cuenca Home · Elo 1,489
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Orense SC Away · Elo 1,476
Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo Cuenca win
Deportivo Cuenca winPick
47.5%
Draw
27.9%
Orense SC win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

Deportivo Cuenca history75 matches
Orense SC history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Deportivo Cuenca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,476. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 75 matches for Deportivo Cuenca, against 1.11 over 66 for Orense SC.

  • Deportivo Cuenca concede fewer

    Deportivo Cuenca concede 1.04 a game, Orense SC 1.36.

  • Orense SC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Deportivo Cuenca matches, against 55% for Orense SC. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo Cuenca
Orense SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.5
ELO
1475.9
75
ELO · Matches
66
1488.5
Current Team ELO
1475.9
1475.9
Current Opponent ELO
1488.5
12.61
Current ELO Difference
-12.61
0.52
Expected score
0.48
75
History Matches
66
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.88
Overperformance
48.43
-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
66
1.41
PPG
1.26
40.0%
Win rate
34.8%
21.3%
Draw rate
21.2%
38.7%
Loss rate
43.9%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
34
1.54
PPG
0.76
42.9%
Win rate
17.6%
25.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
31.4%
Loss rate
58.8%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.11
66.7%
Scoring rate
65.2%
37.3%
BTTS rate
56.1%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.76
74.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
48.6%
BTTS rate
44.1%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.16
64.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
75
History Matches
66
1.08
Goals Mean
1.11
1.10
Goals Std
1.07
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
65.2%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.8%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.6%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.36
61.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.62
65.7%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.52
72.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
75
History Matches
66
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.06
Conceded Std
1.04
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.51
3.20
Stability score
3.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
66
22
Lead Matches
15
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
19
5.6%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.88
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
25
1.16
PPG
1.16
32.0%
Win rate
32.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
48.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
25
Current Competition Matches
25
1.16
Current Competition PPG
1.16
-0.44
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.36
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.30
78.48
Portability Score
76.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO12.61
PPG0.16
GF-0.03
GA-0.32
PPG0.00
PPG0.78
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate1.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.08
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score1.52
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO12.61
Current Opponent ELO-12.61
Current ELO Difference25.23
Expected score0.04
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo Cuenca

W
Manta FC0–2Deportivo Cuenca24 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Cuenca 42% · hit
W
Deportivo Cuenca2–1Tecnico Universitario16 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Cuenca 51% · hit
L
Tecnico Universitario3–1Deportivo Cuenca29 Aug · away
Pick: Tecnico Universitario 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Orense SC

D
Orense SC1–1Tecnico Universitario2 Nov · home
Pick: Orense SC 50% · missed
W
Orense SC4–0Delfin SC24 Oct · home
Pick: Orense SC 48% · hit
D
Mushuc Runa SC1–1Orense SC19 Oct · away
Pick: Mushuc Runa SC 48% · missed
L
Orense SC1–2Macara30 Aug · home
Pick: Macara 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportivo Cuenca and Orense SC meet in Liga Pro on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar, Cuenca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Deportivo Cuenca win 47.5%, draw 27.9%, Orense SC win 24.7%. The pick is Deportivo Cuenca win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.