ScoreProb
National League - National New Zealand Championship Group - 7 2026

Auckland City vs Birkenhead United

Auckland City Home · Elo 1,623
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Birkenhead United Away · Elo 1,539
Kiwitea Street, Auckland Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auckland City win
Auckland City winPick
70.7%
Draw
14.5%
Birkenhead United win
14.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

Auckland City history47 matches
Birkenhead United history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Auckland City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Auckland City are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,539. On rating alone Auckland City would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Birkenhead United score more

    1.70 goals a game over 47 matches for Auckland City, against 2.36 over 33 for Birkenhead United.

  • Auckland City concede fewer

    Auckland City concede 1.40 a game, Birkenhead United 1.58.

  • Birkenhead United games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Auckland City matches, against 79% for Birkenhead United. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Auckland City
Birkenhead United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.4
ELO
1539.5
47
ELO · Matches
33
1623.4
Current Team ELO
1539.5
1539.5
Current Opponent ELO
1623.4
83.97
Current ELO Difference
-83.97
0.62
Expected score
0.38
47
History Matches
33
0.13
Residual Mean
0.07
58.96
Overperformance
54.14
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.50
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.10
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
33
1.96
PPG
1.73
59.6%
Win rate
51.5%
17.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
23.4%
Loss rate
30.3%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
78.8%
27.7%
Over 3.5 rate
51.5%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
15
2.70
PPG
1.67
87.0%
Win rate
46.7%
8.7%
Draw rate
26.7%
4.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
86.7%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
23
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
2.36
83.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
53.2%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.17
Goals for per game
2.27
95.7%
Scoring rate
86.7%
47.8%
BTTS rate
80.0%
47
History Matches
33
1.70
Goals Mean
2.36
1.24
Goals Std
1.74
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
55.3%
Scored 2+ rate
72.7%
19.1%
Scored 3+ rate
42.4%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
2.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.40
Goals against per game
1.58
70.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.93
52.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
47
History Matches
33
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.73
Conceded Std
1.28
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.5%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.3%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
33
0.86
Result entropy
0.92
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.27
13.54
Stability score
7.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
33
16
Lead Matches
12
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
8
33.3%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
334.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
3
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.91
Portability PPG Std
0.15
2.67
Portability PPG Range
0.31
35.41
Portability Score
76.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO83.97
PPG0.23
GF-0.66
GA-0.17
PPG1.03
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate34.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches14
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate1.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std0.45
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches14
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score5.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.06
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.76
Portability PPG Range2.36
Portability Score-40.95
Rest days-258.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO83.97
Current Opponent ELO-83.97
Current ELO Difference167.9
Expected score0.24
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Auckland City

D
Cashmere Technical1–1Auckland City1 Nov · away
Pick: Auckland City 50% · missed
W
Auckland City3–0Auckland United24 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland City 66% · hit
W
Miramar0–2Auckland City17 Oct · away
Pick: Miramar 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Birkenhead United

W
Birkenhead United2–0Ferrymead Bays1 Nov · home
Pick: Birkenhead United 57% · hit
W
Auckland FC 22–9Birkenhead United24 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland FC 2 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Auckland City and Birkenhead United meet in National League - National on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Kiwitea Street, Auckland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Auckland City win 70.7%, draw 14.5%, Birkenhead United win 14.8%. The pick is Auckland City win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.