Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II
Match result probability Model pick: Wellington Phoenix II win
Ferrymead Bays win
34.5%
Draw
19.8%
Wellington Phoenix II winPick
45.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes66.0%
No34.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%
How much we know
Ferrymead Bays history15 matches
Wellington Phoenix II history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Wellington Phoenix II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 02:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 03:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Wellington Phoenix II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ferrymead Bays are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,506 against 1,479. On rating alone Ferrymead Bays would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.87 goals a game over 15 matches for Ferrymead Bays, against 1.96 over 27 for Wellington Phoenix II.
-
Defences are close
Ferrymead Bays concede 1.67 a game, Wellington Phoenix II 1.85.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Ferrymead Bays matches, against 74% for Wellington Phoenix II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wellington Phoenix II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1506.2
ELO
1478.8
15
ELO · Matches
27
1506.2
Current Team ELO
1478.8
1478.8
Current Opponent ELO
1506.2
27.42
Current ELO Difference
-27.42
0.54
Expected score
0.46
15
History Matches
27
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.04
52.16
Overperformance
47.55
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
15
Matches
27
1.53
PPG
1.22
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.7%
Loss rate
44.4%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
14
1.60
PPG
1.29
40.0%
Win rate
35.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
20.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.90
10
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.87
Goals for per game
1.96
73.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.07
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
70.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
15
History Matches
27
1.87
Goals Mean
1.96
1.67
Goals Std
1.90
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
26.7%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.67
Goals against per game
1.85
86.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.64
90.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
15
History Matches
27
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.19
Conceded Std
1.30
53.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.6%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
10.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
15
History Matches
27
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.51
1.22
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
15
Eligible Matches
27
4
Lead Matches
8
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
5
Trailing Matches
10
40.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
441.0
Rest days
335.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
9
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.22
—
Portability PPG Range
0.44
—
Portability Score
69.57
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
15
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.42
PPG0.31
GF-0.10
GA-0.19
PPG0.31
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate4.4%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate1.5%
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.85
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.83
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-2.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.09
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days105.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO27.42
Current Opponent ELO-27.42
Current ELO Difference54.85
Expected score0.08
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance4.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ferrymead Bays
L
Birkenhead United2–0Ferrymead Bays1 Nov · away
Pick: Birkenhead United 57% · hit L
Ferrymead Bays0–2Cashmere Technical23 Oct · home
Pick: Cashmere Technical 56% · hit L
Auckland United2–0Ferrymead Bays18 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland United 61% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wellington Phoenix II
L
Napier City Rovers5–2Wellington Phoenix II24 Oct · away
Pick: Wellington Phoenix II 42% · missed L
Cashmere Technical10–0Wellington Phoenix II4 Oct · away
Pick: Cashmere Technical 51% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Ferrymead Bays and Wellington Phoenix II meet in National League - National on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 03:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ferrymead Bays win 34.5%, draw 19.8%, Wellington Phoenix II win 45.7%. The pick is Wellington Phoenix II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.