ScoreProb
National League - National New Zealand Championship Group - 7 2026

Wellington Olympic vs Auckland United

Wellington Olympic Home · Elo 1,631
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Auckland United Away · Elo 1,491
Wakefield Park, Wellington Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wellington Olympic win
Wellington Olympic winPick
47.7%
Draw
19.1%
Auckland United win
33.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.5%
Under 2.531.5%

How much we know

Wellington Olympic history30 matches
Auckland United history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wellington Olympic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wellington Olympic are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,491. On rating alone Wellington Olympic would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Wellington Olympic score far more

    2.93 goals a game over 30 matches for Wellington Olympic, against 1.74 over 35 for Auckland United.

  • Wellington Olympic concede fewer

    Wellington Olympic concede 1.03 a game, Auckland United 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    73% of Wellington Olympic matches, against 69% for Auckland United. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wellington Olympic
Auckland United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.8
ELO
1491.0
30
ELO · Matches
35
1630.8
Current Team ELO
1491.0
1491.0
Current Opponent ELO
1630.8
139.8
Current ELO Difference
-139.8
0.69
Expected score
0.31
30
History Matches
35
0.20
Residual Mean
0.00
61.84
Overperformance
49.70
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.20
2.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
35
2.30
PPG
1.34
70.0%
Win rate
37.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.9%
10.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
16
2.42
PPG
1.06
75.0%
Win rate
31.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
8.3%
Loss rate
56.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
12
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.93
Goals for per game
1.74
96.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
63.3%
BTTS rate
65.7%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.38
91.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
30
History Matches
35
2.93
Goals Mean
1.74
2.03
Goals Std
1.50
96.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
70.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.4%
56.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.9%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
1.54
66.7%
Conceding rate
82.9%
0.58
Goals against per game
1.56
58.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
30
History Matches
35
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.54
0.91
Conceded Std
1.05
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
3.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
3.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
35
0.73
Result entropy
0.98
2.31
Goal Difference Std
1.89
27.02
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
35
18
Lead Matches
10
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
2
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
1.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.21
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
328.8
Rest days
104.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
11
Normal Rest History Matches
15
2.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.95
77.77
Portability Score
54.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO139.8
PPG0.96
GF1.19
GA-0.51
PPG1.35
PPG1.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate16.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-5
Goals Mean1.19
Goals Std0.53
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate33.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate16.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score24.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate36.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.62
Portability Score23.58
Rest days224.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.28
Current Team ELO139.8
Current Opponent ELO-139.8
Current ELO Difference279.7
Expected score0.38
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance12.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wellington Olympic

W
Miramar0–2Wellington Olympic31 Oct · away
Pick: Miramar 56% · missed
W
Wellington Olympic4–0Eastern Suburbs17 Oct · home
Pick: Wellington Olympic 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Auckland United

L
Auckland United1–2Eastern Suburbs31 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland United 50% · missed
L
Auckland City3–0Auckland United24 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland City 66% · hit
W
Auckland United2–0Ferrymead Bays18 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland United 61% · hit
W
Auckland United7–1Napier City Rovers4 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland United 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wellington Olympic and Auckland United meet in National League - National on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Wakefield Park, Wellington. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wellington Olympic win 47.7%, draw 19.1%, Auckland United win 33.1%. The pick is Wellington Olympic win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.