ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Austin vs Portland Timbers

Austin Home · Elo 1,449
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Portland Timbers Away · Elo 1,520
Q2 Stadium, Austin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Austin win
Austin winPick
40.4%
Draw
23.5%
Portland Timbers win
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Austin history66 matches
Portland Timbers history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Austin are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Portland Timbers are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,449. On rating alone Portland Timbers would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Portland Timbers score more

    1.15 goals a game over 66 matches for Austin, against 1.55 over 67 for Portland Timbers.

  • Austin concede fewer

    Austin concede 1.42 a game, Portland Timbers 1.60.

  • Portland Timbers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Austin matches, against 58% for Portland Timbers. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Austin
Portland Timbers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1449.3
ELO
1520.2
66
ELO · Matches
67
1449.3
Current Team ELO
1520.2
1520.2
Current Opponent ELO
1449.3
-70.89
Current ELO Difference
70.89
0.40
Expected score
0.60
66
History Matches
67
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.71
Overperformance
50.70
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.50
Goals for per game
2.30
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
67
1.21
PPG
1.34
31.8%
Win rate
35.8%
25.8%
Draw rate
26.9%
42.4%
Loss rate
37.3%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
58.2%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.8%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
1.69
PPG
0.92
47.2%
Win rate
22.2%
27.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.55
71.2%
Scoring rate
74.6%
53.0%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.22
83.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
58.3%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.75
73.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.9%
BTTS rate
75.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.15
Goals Mean
1.55
1.00
Goals Std
1.40
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.60
77.3%
Conceding rate
85.1%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.69
66.7%
Conceding rate
86.1%
1.95
Goals against per game
1.80
78.9%
Conceding rate
95.0%
66
History Matches
67
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.17
Conceded Std
1.11
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.8%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.82
1.92
Stability score
0.90
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
22
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.71
21
Trailing Matches
22
19.0%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
0.89
PPG
1.25
21.1%
Win rate
35.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
52.6%
Loss rate
45.0%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
19
Current Competition Matches
20
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.79
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
6
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.44
Portability PPG Range
1.33
50.36
Portability Score
49.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-70.89
PPG-0.13
GF-0.40
GA-0.17
PPG-0.36
PPG0.78
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.40
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score1.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.36
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.74
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score0.78
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-70.89
Current Opponent ELO70.89
Current ELO Difference-141.8
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Austin

L
Los Angeles Galaxy4–1Austin31 Oct · away
Pick: Los Angeles Galaxy 57% · hit
L
Austin1–2Real Salt Lake29 Oct · home
Pick: Real Salt Lake 38% · hit
W
Sporting Kansas City1–2Austin25 Oct · away
Pick: Austin 46% · hit
L
Austin1–2Vancouver Whitecaps18 Oct · home
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 52% · hit
L
Los Angeles FC3–1Austin15 Oct · away
Pick: Los Angeles FC 70% · hit

Portland Timbers

W
Portland Timbers3–1Houston Dynamo2 Nov · home
Pick: Houston Dynamo 38% · missed
W
St. Louis City2–3Portland Timbers29 Oct · away
Pick: St. Louis City 47% · missed
W
Portland Timbers3–2Charlotte25 Oct · home
Pick: Portland Timbers 39% · hit
D
Portland Timbers0–0Colorado Rapids18 Oct · home
Pick: Portland Timbers 42% · missed
L
Los Angeles Galaxy2–0Portland Timbers15 Oct · away
Pick: Los Angeles Galaxy 45% · hit

About this match

Austin and Portland Timbers meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Q2 Stadium, Austin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Austin win 40.4%, draw 23.5%, Portland Timbers win 36.1%. The pick is Austin win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.