ScoreProb
2. Division Cyprus Round 7 2026

Ayia Napa vs Ethnikos Achna

Ayia Napa Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ethnikos Achna Away · Elo 1,439
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ethnikos Achna win
Ayia Napa win
35.6%
Draw
23.6%
Ethnikos Achna winPick
40.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Ayia Napa history44 matches
Ethnikos Achna history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ethnikos Achna are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ayia Napa are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,439. On rating alone Ayia Napa would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Ayia Napa score more

    1.32 goals a game over 44 matches for Ayia Napa, against 1.12 over 50 for Ethnikos Achna.

  • Defences are close

    Ayia Napa concede 1.66 a game, Ethnikos Achna 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Ayia Napa matches, against 54% for Ethnikos Achna. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ayia Napa
Ethnikos Achna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.7
ELO
1439.5
44
ELO · Matches
50
1478.7
Current Team ELO
1439.5
1439.5
Current Opponent ELO
1478.7
39.24
Current ELO Difference
-39.24
0.56
Expected score
0.44
44
History Matches
50
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.67
Overperformance
45.76
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.30
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.15
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
50
1.32
PPG
1.10
36.4%
Win rate
32.0%
22.7%
Draw rate
14.0%
40.9%
Loss rate
54.0%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
25
1.26
PPG
0.56
34.8%
Win rate
12.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
43.5%
Loss rate
68.0%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
23
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
1.12
65.9%
Scoring rate
62.0%
47.7%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.00
60.9%
Scoring rate
60.0%
39.1%
BTTS rate
52.0%
44
History Matches
50
1.32
Goals Mean
1.12
1.39
Goals Std
1.16
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
62.0%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.66
Goals against per game
1.54
75.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.08
69.6%
Conceding rate
84.0%
44
History Matches
50
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.41
Conceded Std
1.31
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.0%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
50
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.86
2.58
Stability score
11.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
50
4
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
17
29.4%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.9
Rest days
175.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
14
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.00
Portability PPG Range
0.14
99.71
Portability Score
87.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO39.24
PPG0.22
GF0.20
GA0.12
PPG0.70
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate3.9%
Scored 2+ rate2.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.26
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-8.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.82
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score12.21
Rest days20.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO39.24
Current Opponent ELO-39.24
Current ELO Difference78.48
Expected score0.11
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ayia Napa

D
Spartakos Kitiou0–0Ayia Napa31 Oct · away
Pick: Spartakos Kitiou 40% · missed
W
Ayia Napa2–1Digenis Morphou24 Oct · home
Pick: Digenis Morphou 42% · missed
L
Doxa3–0Ayia Napa17 Oct · away
Pick: Doxa 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ethnikos Achna

W
Ethnikos Achna2–0Halkanoras31 Oct · home
Pick: Ethnikos Achna 48% · hit
W
Anagennisi Deryneia1–3Ethnikos Achna23 Oct · away
Pick: Anagennisi Deryneia 47% · missed
L
Ethnikos Achna0–1APEA17 Oct · home
Pick: Ethnikos Achna 46% · missed
L
Aris4–0Ethnikos Achna14 Oct · away
Pick: Aris 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ayia Napa and Ethnikos Achna meet in 2. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ayia Napa win 35.6%, draw 23.6%, Ethnikos Achna win 40.8%. The pick is Ethnikos Achna win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.