Bam Khatoon W vs Naegohyang W
What we said before kickoff Result: Naegohyang W win
Bam Khatoon W win
29.4%
Draw
18.8%
Naegohyang W winPick Result
51.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickNaegohyang W win · 51.8%
What happenedNaegohyang W win · we gave it 51.8%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 61.9%
What happenedOver · 7 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 52.2%
What happenedYes · 1–6
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Naegohyang W win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
52%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.9
on average A pick at 52% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
26'
GoalK. Song-ok · assist Y. Pak
37'
GoalRi Kum-Hyang · assist Ri Myong-Gum
SubstitutionM. Dini off · S. Chahkandi on
46' 46'
SubstitutionR. Y. Jong off · R. Yong-Gyong on
46'
SubstitutionKim Kyong-Yong off · Choe Kum-Ok on
46'
SubstitutionK. Song-ok off · Choe Yon-A on
52'
GoalY. Pak · assist Kum Jong
54'
GoalChoe Yon-A · assist Kum Jong
59'
GoalKum Jong · assist Choe Yon-A
62'
SubstitutionRo Un-Hyang off · S. Pak on
GoalF. Shaban · assist R. Tamrian
67' 74'
SubstitutionKum Jong off · K. Min on
79'
Yellow cardY. Pak
Yellow cardZ. Sarbali
82' 88'
Own goalM. Hamoudi
SubstitutionZ. Sarbali off · F. Fazlabadi on
90+1' Both teams to score
Yes47.8%
No52.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%
How much we know
Bam Khatoon W history6 matches
Naegohyang W history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 08:30 UTC
- Full time: 1–6Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Naegohyang W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Naegohyang W are rated 56 Elo points higher
Elo 1,559 against 1,503. On rating alone Naegohyang W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Naegohyang W score far more
1.33 goals a game over 6 matches for Bam Khatoon W, against 3.00 over 8 for Naegohyang W.
-
Naegohyang W concede fewer
Bam Khatoon W concede 1.50 a game, Naegohyang W 0.63.
-
Naegohyang W games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of Bam Khatoon W matches, against 88% for Naegohyang W. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Naegohyang W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1503.3
ELO
1559.1
6
ELO · Matches
8
1503.3
Current Team ELO
1559.1
1559.1
Current Opponent ELO
1503.3
-55.88
Current ELO Difference
55.88
0.42
Expected score
0.58
6
History Matches
8
0.03
Residual Mean
0.37
50.66
Overperformance
60.56
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.37
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
3.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
100.0%
6
Matches
8
1.50
PPG
2.63
1.33
Goals for per game
3.00
1.50
Goals against per game
0.63
50.0%
Win rate
87.5%
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.06
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.32
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.34
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
6
Matches
8
1.50
PPG
2.63
50.0%
Win rate
87.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
12.5%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.25
66.7%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.21
3
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.33
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
12.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
3.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
6
History Matches
8
1.33
Goals Mean
3.00
1.25
Goals Std
2.06
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
62.5%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
3.25
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.50
Goals against per game
0.63
66.7%
Conceding rate
25.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
25.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
—
50.0%
Conceding rate
—
6
History Matches
8
1.50
Conceded Mean
0.63
1.50
Conceded Std
1.32
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.5%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
6
History Matches
8
0.63
Result entropy
0.34
2.41
Goal Difference Std
3.04
36.91
Stability score
65.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
5
Eligible Matches
8
1
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
1
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
5
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.13
0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.63
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.85
Rest days
165.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
3
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
6
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-55.88
PPG-1.13
GF-1.67
GA0.88
PPG-0.25
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Failed-to-score rate20.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-1.67
Goals Std-0.81
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.42
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.88
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.42
Conceded 2+ rate20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.29
Goal Difference Std-0.63
Stability score-28.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.50
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-92.29
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-55.88
Current Opponent ELO55.88
Current ELO Difference-111.8
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.34
Overperformance-9.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bam Khatoon W
L
INAC Kobe Leonessa W4–1Bam Khatoon W1 Nov · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 71% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Naegohyang W
W
Naegohyang W7–0Ayeyawady W1 Nov · home
Pick: Naegohyang W 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Bam Khatoon W and Naegohyang W finished 1–6 in AFC Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Bam Khatoon W win 29.4%, draw 18.8%, Naegohyang W win 51.8%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.