Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom vs Zlaté Moravce
Match result probability Model pick: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom winPick
44.1%
Draw
24.5%
Zlaté Moravce win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.0%
No38.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%
How much we know
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom history66 matches
Zlaté Moravce history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,536 against 1,534. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Zlaté Moravce score more
1.47 goals a game over 66 matches for Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom, against 2.15 over 68 for Zlaté Moravce.
-
Defences are close
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom concede 1.55 a game, Zlaté Moravce 1.47.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
62% of Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom matches, against 69% for Zlaté Moravce. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zlaté Moravce@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1536.0
ELO
1533.9
66
ELO · Matches
68
1536.0
Current Team ELO
1533.9
1533.9
Current Opponent ELO
1536.0
2.08
Current ELO Difference
-2.08
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
68
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.52
Overperformance
50.79
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.33
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals 90
66
Matches
68
1.33
PPG
1.54
34.8%
Win rate
44.1%
28.8%
Draw rate
22.1%
36.4%
Loss rate
33.8%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
69.1%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
39
1.73
PPG
1.41
50.0%
Win rate
41.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
26.7%
Loss rate
41.0%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.8%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
51.3%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
30
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.47
Goals for per game
2.15
81.8%
Scoring rate
89.7%
63.6%
BTTS rate
72.1%
1.83
Goals for per game
2.28
93.3%
Scoring rate
89.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
74.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
68
1.47
Goals Mean
2.15
1.13
Goals Std
1.68
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
30.9%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
2.28
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.47
75.8%
Conceding rate
79.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.59
73.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
68
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.22
Conceded Std
1.14
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
66
History Matches
68
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.13
0.45
Stability score
3.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
64
Eligible Matches
68
20
Lead Matches
25
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
18
23.5%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.90
Rest days
83.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
39
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
80.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.56
Portability PPG Range
1.17
69.31
Portability Score
53.41
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
66
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO2.08
PPG-0.21
GF-0.68
GA0.07
PPG0.40
PPG0.32
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.19
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Conceded 2+ rate8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-2.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.83
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score15.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO2.08
Current Opponent ELO-2.08
Current ELO Difference4.15
Expected score0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
L
Pohronie5–1Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom6 Nov · away
Pick: Pohronie 43% · hit W
Inter Bratislava2–3Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom31 Oct · away
Pick: Inter Bratislava 44% · missed W
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom1–0Petržalka24 Oct · home
Pick: Petržalka 45% · missed L
Liptovský Mikuláš1–0Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom16 Oct · away
Pick: Liptovský Mikuláš 55% · hit L
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom0–3Zemplín Michalovce13 Oct · home
Pick: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 39% · missed Zlaté Moravce
L
Zlaté Moravce0–1Slovan Bratislava II7 Nov · home
Pick: Zlaté Moravce 49% · missed D
Zlaté Moravce0–0Šamorín31 Oct · home
Pick: Šamorín 47% · missed L
Malženice3–0Zlaté Moravce25 Oct · away
Pick: Malženice 40% · hit L
Humenné2–1Zlaté Moravce17 Oct · away
Pick: Zlaté Moravce 39% · missed L
Zlaté Moravce1–3Pohronie12 Oct · home
Pick: Zlaté Moravce 43% · missed About this match
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom and Zlaté Moravce meet in 2. liga on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Futbalovy stadion OFK Banik, Lehota pod Vtacnikom. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win 44.1%, draw 24.5%, Zlaté Moravce win 31.4%. The pick is Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.7%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.