ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Bansko vs Balkan Botevgrad

Bansko Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Balkan Botevgrad Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bansko win
Bansko winPick
57.7%
Draw
20.8%
Balkan Botevgrad win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%

How much we know

Bansko history52 matches
Balkan Botevgrad history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bansko are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,507. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Balkan Botevgrad score more

    1.29 goals a game over 52 matches for Bansko, against 1.45 over 49 for Balkan Botevgrad.

  • Bansko concede fewer

    Bansko concede 1.25 a game, Balkan Botevgrad 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Bansko matches, against 51% for Balkan Botevgrad. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bansko
Balkan Botevgrad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.6
ELO
1506.8
52
ELO · Matches
49
1517.6
Current Team ELO
1506.8
1506.8
Current Opponent ELO
1517.6
10.89
Current ELO Difference
-10.89
0.52
Expected score
0.48
52
History Matches
49
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.53
Overperformance
49.84
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
1.35
PPG
1.33
34.6%
Win rate
34.7%
30.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
34.6%
Loss rate
36.7%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
0.89
44.4%
Win rate
18.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
22.2%
Loss rate
48.1%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
59.3%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.45
67.3%
Scoring rate
75.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.93
70.4%
Scoring rate
55.6%
51.9%
BTTS rate
37.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.29
Goals Mean
1.45
1.17
Goals Std
1.53
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.45
67.3%
Conceding rate
67.3%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
49
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.17
Conceded Std
1.39
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.4%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.63
Goal Difference Std
2.01
0.14
Stability score
0.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
21
4
Lead Matches
3
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
5
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.24
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
33
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.26
45.90
Portability Score
81.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.89
PPG0.02
GF-0.16
GA-0.20
PPG1.00
PPG0.78
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-0.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.50
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range0.99
Portability Score-36.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO10.89
Current Opponent ELO-10.89
Current ELO Difference21.77
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bansko

D
Kostinbrod3–3Bansko31 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 48% · missed
W
Septemvri Sofia II0–1Bansko24 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 36% · hit
W
Bansko1–0Botev Ihtiman7 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 50% · hit
W
Bansko4–1Belasitsa29 Aug · home
Pick: Bansko 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Balkan Botevgrad

L
Balkan Botevgrad1–4FK Minyor Pernik31 Oct · home
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 43% · hit
L
Balkan Botevgrad1–3Natsional Sofia24 Oct · home
Pick: Balkan Botevgrad 66% · missed
L
Chavdar Etropole1–0Balkan Botevgrad17 Oct · away
Pick: Chavdar Etropole 37% · hit
W
Belasitsa1–2Balkan Botevgrad7 Oct · away
Pick: Belasitsa 52% · missed
L
Slavia Sofia II1–0Balkan Botevgrad29 Aug · away
Pick: Slavia Sofia II 44% · hit

About this match

Bansko and Balkan Botevgrad meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bansko win 57.7%, draw 20.8%, Balkan Botevgrad win 21.5%. The pick is Bansko win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.1%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.