ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

FK Minyor Pernik vs CSKA Sofia III

FK Minyor Pernik Home · Elo 1,410
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
CSKA Sofia III Away · Elo 1,521
Stadion Minyor, Pernik Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Minyor Pernik win
FK Minyor Pernik winPick
48.6%
Draw
24.9%
CSKA Sofia III win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

FK Minyor Pernik history60 matches
CSKA Sofia III history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FK Minyor Pernik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CSKA Sofia III are rated 111 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,410. On rating alone CSKA Sofia III would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • CSKA Sofia III score more

    1.02 goals a game over 60 matches for FK Minyor Pernik, against 1.30 over 50 for CSKA Sofia III.

  • CSKA Sofia III concede fewer

    FK Minyor Pernik concede 1.53 a game, CSKA Sofia III 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of FK Minyor Pernik matches, against 46% for CSKA Sofia III. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Minyor Pernik
CSKA Sofia III
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1409.9
ELO
1520.8
60
ELO · Matches
50
1409.9
Current Team ELO
1520.8
1520.8
Current Opponent ELO
1409.9
-110.9
Current ELO Difference
110.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
60
History Matches
50
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
44.56
Overperformance
51.26
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.28
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
50
0.95
PPG
1.32
25.0%
Win rate
34.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
55.0%
Loss rate
36.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.0%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
26
1.07
PPG
0.96
26.7%
Win rate
23.1%
26.7%
Draw rate
26.9%
46.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
30
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.30
60.0%
Scoring rate
72.0%
45.0%
BTTS rate
58.0%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.15
60.0%
Scoring rate
65.4%
43.3%
BTTS rate
53.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
50
1.02
Goals Mean
1.30
1.13
Goals Std
1.19
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.0%
23.3%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.32
78.3%
Conceding rate
74.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.54
73.3%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
50
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.18
Conceded Std
1.21
48.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
50
0.91
Result entropy
1.00
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.52
9.22
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
16
16
Lead Matches
1
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
5
15.8%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
21
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.42
53.52
Portability Score
74.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-110.9
PPG-0.37
GF-0.28
GA0.21
PPG0.75
PPG0.11
PPG0.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.78
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score8.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.31
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-20.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-110.9
Current Opponent ELO110.9
Current ELO Difference-221.8
Expected score-0.31
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Minyor Pernik

W
Balkan Botevgrad1–4FK Minyor Pernik31 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 43% · hit
D
Slivnishki geroy0–0FK Minyor Pernik24 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 41% · missed
W
FK Minyor Pernik5–1Slavia Sofia II7 Oct · home
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 56% · hit
L
FK Minyor Pernik1–2Beroe4 Oct · home
Pick: Beroe 40% · hit
D
Oborishte0–0FK Minyor Pernik29 Aug · away
Pick: Oborishte 44% · missed

CSKA Sofia III

D
CSKA Sofia III0–0Chavdar Etropole24 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia III 62% · missed
W
Belasitsa0–2CSKA Sofia III17 Oct · away
Pick: Belasitsa 49% · missed
L
Botev Ihtiman2–1CSKA Sofia III29 Aug · away
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FK Minyor Pernik and CSKA Sofia III meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Minyor, Pernik. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FK Minyor Pernik win 48.6%, draw 24.9%, CSKA Sofia III win 26.5%. The pick is FK Minyor Pernik win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.3%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.