ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia

Belasitsa Home · Elo 1,409
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Natsional Sofia Away · Elo 1,470
Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Belasitsa win
Belasitsa winPick
67.4%
Draw
15.2%
Natsional Sofia win
17.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Belasitsa history58 matches
Natsional Sofia history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Belasitsa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Natsional Sofia are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,470 against 1,409. On rating alone Natsional Sofia would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Belasitsa score more

    0.95 goals a game over 58 matches for Belasitsa, against 0.75 over 4 for Natsional Sofia.

  • Belasitsa concede fewer

    Belasitsa concede 1.78 a game, Natsional Sofia 2.25.

  • Natsional Sofia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Belasitsa matches, against 75% for Natsional Sofia. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belasitsa
Natsional Sofia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1409.1
ELO
1470.1
58
ELO · Matches
4
1409.1
Current Team ELO
1470.1
1470.1
Current Opponent ELO
1409.1
-60.97
Current ELO Difference
60.97
0.41
Expected score
0.59
58
History Matches
4
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.37
44.29
Overperformance
43.80
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.37
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.25
2.40
Goals for per game
0.75
1.60
Goals against per game
2.25
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
4
1.30
PPG
0.25
1.80
Goals for per game
0.75
1.80
Goals against per game
2.25
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.75
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.25
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
4
0.90
PPG
0.25
22.4%
Win rate
0.0%
22.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
55.2%
Loss rate
75.0%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
2
1.21
PPG
0.00
31.0%
Win rate
0.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
41.4%
Loss rate
100.0%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
29
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.95
Goals for per game
0.75
58.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
43.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.50
65.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
41.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.50
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
4
0.95
Goals Mean
0.75
1.04
Goals Std
0.83
58.6%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
22.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
2.25
75.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.45
Goals against per game
2.00
65.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
4
1.78
Conceded Mean
2.25
1.54
Conceded Std
0.83
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
75.0%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
41.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
4
0.91
Result entropy
0.51
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.12
9.11
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
4
6
Lead Matches
0
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.61
Lead Points Retention
—
22
Trailing Matches
3
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
28
Normal Rest History Matches
3
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
28
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.46
Portability PPG Std
—
1.16
Portability PPG Range
—
52.30
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.97
PPG0.65
GF0.20
GA-0.47
PPG1.50
PPG1.21
PPG1.75
PPG1.05
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches54
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate34.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches54
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches54
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std0.71
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.64
History Matches54
Result entropy0.40
Goal Difference Std0.65
Stability score-39.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches54
Lead Matches6
Trailing Matches19
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate4.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches54
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches28
Current Team ELO-60.97
Current Opponent ELO60.97
Current ELO Difference-121.9
Expected score-0.17
History Matches54
Residual Mean0.30
Overperformance0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Belasitsa

W
Botev Ihtiman1–2Belasitsa31 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 38% · missed
D
Kyustendil0–0Belasitsa24 Oct · away
Pick: Kyustendil 41% · missed
L
Belasitsa0–2CSKA Sofia III17 Oct · home
Pick: Belasitsa 49% · missed
L
Belasitsa1–2Balkan Botevgrad7 Oct · home
Pick: Belasitsa 52% · missed
L
Belasitsa1–2Dobrudzha4 Oct · home
Pick: Dobrudzha 43% · hit

Natsional Sofia

L
Chavdar Etropole4–2Natsional Sofia31 Oct · away
Pick: Chavdar Etropole 53% · hit
W
Balkan Botevgrad1–3Natsional Sofia24 Oct · away
Pick: Balkan Botevgrad 66% · missed
L
Natsional Sofia1–2Septemvri Sofia II7 Oct · home
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 54% · hit
L
Natsional Sofia1–3Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa4 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 40% · hit
D
Septemvri Simitli3–3Natsional Sofia29 Aug · away
Pick: Septemvri Simitli 74% · missed

About this match

Belasitsa and Natsional Sofia meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Belasitsa win 67.4%, draw 15.2%, Natsional Sofia win 17.4%. The pick is Belasitsa win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 46.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.