ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Kyustendil vs Levski Sofia II

Kyustendil Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Levski Sofia II Away · Elo 1,452
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kyustendil win
Kyustendil winPick
44.5%
Draw
27.3%
Levski Sofia II win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

Kyustendil history53 matches
Levski Sofia II history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kyustendil are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kyustendil are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,452. On rating alone Kyustendil would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Kyustendil score far more

    1.85 goals a game over 53 matches for Kyustendil, against 0.92 over 51 for Levski Sofia II.

  • Levski Sofia II concede fewer

    Kyustendil concede 1.55 a game, Levski Sofia II 1.24.

  • Kyustendil games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Kyustendil matches, against 33% for Levski Sofia II. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kyustendil
Levski Sofia II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.1
ELO
1452.0
53
ELO · Matches
51
1501.1
Current Team ELO
1452.0
1452.0
Current Opponent ELO
1501.1
49.14
Current ELO Difference
-49.14
0.57
Expected score
0.43
53
History Matches
51
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.85
Overperformance
45.54
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
2.21
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
51
1.57
PPG
1.10
47.2%
Win rate
27.5%
15.1%
Draw rate
27.5%
37.7%
Loss rate
45.1%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
56.9%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
30
2.23
PPG
0.73
69.2%
Win rate
16.7%
15.4%
Draw rate
23.3%
15.4%
Loss rate
60.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
46.7%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
26
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.85
Goals for per game
0.92
75.5%
Scoring rate
52.9%
60.4%
BTTS rate
39.2%
2.35
Goals for per game
0.70
76.9%
Scoring rate
36.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
53
History Matches
51
1.85
Goals Mean
0.92
1.65
Goals Std
1.20
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
19.6%
32.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.24
77.4%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.37
61.5%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
51
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.37
Conceded Std
1.16
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
63.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
63.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.50
8.28
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
26
9
Lead Matches
5
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.53
9
Trailing Matches
5
11.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.29
35
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.06
Portability PPG Range
0.24
53.42
Portability Score
82.79
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO49.14
PPG0.47
GF0.93
GA0.31
PPG0.00
PPG1.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.93
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate22.5%
Scored 2+ rate27.6%
Scored 3+ rate20.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.19
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score5.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate48.9%
Lead Points Retention0.39
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.83
Portability Score-29.37
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.96
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO49.14
Current Opponent ELO-49.14
Current ELO Difference98.28
Expected score0.14
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kyustendil

D
Kyustendil0–0Belasitsa24 Oct · home
Pick: Kyustendil 41% · missed
D
Oborishte2–2Kyustendil7 Oct · away
Pick: Oborishte 52% · missed
W
Kyustendil3–1Chavdar Etropole29 Aug · home
Pick: Kyustendil 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Levski Sofia II

L
Levski Sofia II0–2Oborishte24 Oct · home
Pick: Oborishte 41% · hit
L
Levski Sofia II1–2Kostinbrod29 Aug · home
Pick: Levski Sofia II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kyustendil and Levski Sofia II meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kyustendil win 44.5%, draw 27.3%, Levski Sofia II win 28.2%. The pick is Kyustendil win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.