ScoreProb
Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 17 2026

Bayern Alzenau vs Hünfelder SV

Bayern Alzenau Home · Elo 1,453
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hünfelder SV Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hünfelder SV win
Bayern Alzenau win
36.3%
Draw
19.4%
Hünfelder SV winPick
44.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

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Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.9%
No32.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.6%
Under 2.526.4%

How much we know

Bayern Alzenau history65 matches
Hünfelder SV history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hünfelder SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hünfelder SV are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,453. On rating alone Hünfelder SV would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.83 goals a game over 65 matches for Bayern Alzenau, against 1.98 over 56 for Hünfelder SV.

  • Defences are close

    Bayern Alzenau concede 1.86 a game, Hünfelder SV 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Bayern Alzenau matches, against 77% for Hünfelder SV. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern Alzenau
Hünfelder SV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.6
ELO
1510.1
65
ELO · Matches
56
1452.6
Current Team ELO
1510.1
1510.1
Current Opponent ELO
1452.6
-57.49
Current ELO Difference
57.49
0.42
Expected score
0.58
65
History Matches
56
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.83
Overperformance
50.42
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
2.30
2.30
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
56
1.20
PPG
1.41
32.3%
Win rate
42.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
12.5%
44.6%
Loss rate
44.6%
87.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
76.8%
52.3%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
29
1.26
PPG
1.59
31.4%
Win rate
48.3%
31.4%
Draw rate
13.8%
37.1%
Loss rate
37.9%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
96.6%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
82.8%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
65.5%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
35
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.98
81.5%
Scoring rate
83.9%
64.6%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.97
Goals for per game
2.10
88.6%
Scoring rate
89.7%
65.7%
BTTS rate
75.9%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
65
History Matches
56
1.83
Goals Mean
1.98
1.68
Goals Std
1.60
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.8%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.93
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.74
Goals against per game
2.03
74.3%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
65
History Matches
56
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.36
Conceded Std
1.39
56.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.6%
33.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
2.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
2.30
Goal Difference Std
2.36
3.20
Stability score
10.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
17
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.82
25
Trailing Matches
20
36.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.26
Rest days
76.22
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
2.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.26
Portability PPG Range
1.04
47.90
Portability Score
51.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-57.49
PPG-0.21
GF-0.15
GA-0.07
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.33
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.4%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches9
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-7.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate16.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-3.16
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Current Team ELO-57.49
Current Opponent ELO57.49
Current ELO Difference-115.0
Expected score-0.16
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayern Alzenau

W
FC Gießen1–2Bayern Alzenau31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gießen 40% · missed
D
Eintracht Stadtallendorf1–1Bayern Alzenau24 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 61% · missed
L
Bayern Alzenau0–1TuBa Pohlheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Alzenau 46% · missed
L
Rot-Weiß Walldorf3–0Bayern Alzenau30 Aug · away
Pick: Bayern Alzenau 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hünfelder SV

L
Hünfelder SV0–4Eintracht Stadtallendorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 48% · hit
L
Hünfelder SV0–2Friedberg17 Oct · home
Pick: Hünfelder SV 49% · missed
W
Hummetroth1–2Hünfelder SV29 Aug · away
Pick: Hünfelder SV 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bayern Alzenau and Hünfelder SV meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bayern Alzenau win 36.3%, draw 19.4%, Hünfelder SV win 44.3%. The pick is Hünfelder SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.6%. Both teams to score: 67.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.