ScoreProb
Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

Bayern Munich W vs Werder Bremen W

Bayern Munich W Home · Elo 1,780
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Werder Bremen W Away · Elo 1,548
FC Bayern Campus, Munich Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayern Munich W win
Bayern Munich W winPick
78.1%
Draw
13.0%
Werder Bremen W win
8.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.8%
Under 2.532.2%

How much we know

Bayern Munich W history58 matches
Werder Bremen W history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.1%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Bayern Munich W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayern Munich W are rated 232 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,780 against 1,548. On rating alone Bayern Munich W would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Bayern Munich W score far more

    2.91 goals a game over 58 matches for Bayern Munich W, against 1.50 over 42 for Werder Bremen W.

  • Bayern Munich W concede fewer

    Bayern Munich W concede 0.81 a game, Werder Bremen W 1.55.

  • Bayern Munich W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Bayern Munich W matches, against 55% for Werder Bremen W. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern Munich W
Werder Bremen W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1780.2
ELO
1547.9
58
ELO · Matches
42
1780.2
Current Team ELO
1547.9
1547.9
Current Opponent ELO
1780.2
232.3
Current ELO Difference
-232.3
0.79
Expected score
0.21
58
History Matches
42
0.24
Residual Mean
0.04
68.05
Overperformance
52.93
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.80
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
2.30
Goals for per game
2.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
42
2.62
PPG
1.50
84.5%
Win rate
42.9%
8.6%
Draw rate
21.4%
6.9%
Loss rate
35.7%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
75.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
53.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
24
2.63
PPG
1.21
83.3%
Win rate
33.3%
13.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
3.3%
Loss rate
45.8%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
46.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
30
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.91
Goals for per game
1.50
96.6%
Scoring rate
76.2%
44.8%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.77
Goals for per game
1.25
93.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
46.7%
BTTS rate
54.2%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
42
2.91
Goals Mean
1.50
1.42
Goals Std
1.44
96.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
81.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
65.5%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.81
Goals against per game
1.55
46.6%
Conceding rate
73.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.88
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
42
0.81
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.25
Conceded Std
1.50
19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
53.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
53.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
53.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
42
0.49
Result entropy
0.97
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.31
51.01
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
42
31
Lead Matches
12
96.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
18
66.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.19
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.05
Rest days
74.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
17
2.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.19
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.45
55.47
Portability Score
72.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO232.3
PPG1.12
GF1.41
GA-0.74
PPG0.00
PPG1.43
PPG1.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches16
Goals Mean1.41
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate20.4%
Scored 2+ rate42.9%
Scored 3+ rate46.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-0.74
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches16
Result entropy-0.48
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score47.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.12
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate44.4%
Trailing Win Rate33.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.55
Portability Score-16.94
Rest days2.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.11
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.38
Current Team ELO232.3
Current Opponent ELO-232.3
Current ELO Difference464.6
Expected score0.58
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance15.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayern Munich W

W
Bayern Munich W1–0Bayer Leverkusen W1 Nov · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 67% · hit
D
Bayern Munich W2–2Real Madrid W28 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 42% · missed
W
RB Leipzig W1–5Bayern Munich W23 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Munich W 69% · hit
W
Bayern Munich W5–0Stuttgart W19 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 79% · hit
W
Bayern Munich W2–0Mainz 05 W31 Aug · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 85% · hit

Werder Bremen W

W
Werder Bremen W4–3SC Freiburg W25 Oct · home
Pick: Werder Bremen W 54% · hit
W
Werder Bremen W2–0RB Leipzig W30 Aug · home
Pick: Werder Bremen W 64% · hit
W
Mainz 05 W1–2Werder Bremen W24 Aug · away
Pick: Mainz 05 W 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bayern Munich W and Werder Bremen W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at FC Bayern Campus, Munich. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bayern Munich W win 78.1%, draw 13.0%, Werder Bremen W win 8.9%. The pick is Bayern Munich W win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.8%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.