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Australian Championship Australia Round 5 2026

Bayswater City vs Sydney Olympic

Bayswater City Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sydney Olympic Away · Elo 1,422
Frank Drago Reserve Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayswater City win
Bayswater City winPick
50.8%
Draw
20.5%
Sydney Olympic win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Bayswater City history54 matches
Sydney Olympic history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Bayswater City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayswater City are rated 228 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,422. On rating alone Bayswater City would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Bayswater City score far more

    2.31 goals a game over 54 matches for Bayswater City, against 1.43 over 65 for Sydney Olympic.

  • Bayswater City concede fewer

    Bayswater City concede 1.07 a game, Sydney Olympic 1.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Bayswater City matches, against 66% for Sydney Olympic. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayswater City
Sydney Olympic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.8
ELO
1421.6
54
ELO · Matches
65
1649.8
Current Team ELO
1421.6
1421.6
Current Opponent ELO
1649.8
228.2
Current ELO Difference
-228.2
0.79
Expected score
0.21
54
History Matches
65
0.14
Residual Mean
-0.06
60.34
Overperformance
45.37
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
3.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
3.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.09
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
65
2.19
PPG
1.06
66.7%
Win rate
29.2%
18.5%
Draw rate
18.5%
14.8%
Loss rate
52.3%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.2%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
33
2.48
PPG
1.21
79.3%
Win rate
33.3%
10.3%
Draw rate
21.2%
10.3%
Loss rate
45.5%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
29
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.31
Goals for per game
1.43
90.7%
Scoring rate
72.3%
51.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.66
Goals for per game
1.58
96.6%
Scoring rate
75.8%
48.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
54
History Matches
65
2.31
Goals Mean
1.43
1.62
Goals Std
1.34
90.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
64.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
38.9%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
2.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.07
Goals against per game
1.77
57.4%
Conceding rate
86.2%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.73
48.3%
Conceding rate
87.9%
54
History Matches
65
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.23
Conceded Std
1.20
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.4%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
51.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
3.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
65
0.79
Result entropy
0.92
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.10
21.22
Stability score
8.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
65
27
Lead Matches
23
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
60.9%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.68
12
Trailing Matches
23
58.3%
Non-loss rate
8.7%
41.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
1.07
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.06
Rest days
83.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
21
Long Rest History Matches
29
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.62
61.77
Portability Score
66.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO228.2
PPG1.12
GF0.88
GA-0.70
PPG1.27
PPG2.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate28.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate39.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.88
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate24.8%
Scored 3+ rate22.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.01
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.70
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate28.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.69
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score13.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate28.0%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate49.6%
Trailing Win Rate41.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-4.23
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.16
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match1.01
Current Team ELO228.2
Current Opponent ELO-228.2
Current ELO Difference456.4
Expected score0.58
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance14.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayswater City

W
Marconi Stallions1–4Bayswater City7 Nov · away
Pick: Marconi Stallions 51% · missed
W
Sydney Olympic1–2Bayswater City25 Oct · away
Pick: Bayswater City 41% · hit
W
Bayswater City3–1Marconi Stallions17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayswater City 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sydney Olympic

L
Sydney Olympic0–2Oakleigh Cannons5 Nov · home
Pick: Sydney Olympic 45% · missed
W
Sydney Olympic3–2Marconi Stallions30 Oct · home
Pick: Marconi Stallions 54% · missed
L
Sydney Olympic1–2Bayswater City25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayswater City 41% · hit
L
Oakleigh Cannons4–2Sydney Olympic16 Oct · away
Pick: Oakleigh Cannons 45% · hit
D
Sydney Olympic1–1Sydney FC U2330 Aug · home
Pick: Sydney Olympic 40% · missed

About this match

Bayswater City and Sydney Olympic meet in Australian Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Frank Drago Reserve. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bayswater City win 50.8%, draw 20.5%, Sydney Olympic win 28.7%. The pick is Bayswater City win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.