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Australian Championship Australia Round 5 2026

Sydney United vs South Melbourne

Sydney United Home · Elo 1,599
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
South Melbourne Away · Elo 1,594
Sydney United Sports Centre Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: South Melbourne win
Sydney United win
26.5%
Draw
29.9%
South Melbourne winPick
43.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Sydney United history70 matches
South Melbourne history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why South Melbourne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,599 against 1,594. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • South Melbourne score more

    1.30 goals a game over 70 matches for Sydney United, against 1.78 over 83 for South Melbourne.

  • Sydney United concede fewer

    Sydney United concede 1.11 a game, South Melbourne 1.45.

  • South Melbourne games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Sydney United matches, against 63% for South Melbourne. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sydney United
South Melbourne@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1599.4
ELO
1594.1
70
ELO · Matches
83
1599.4
Current Team ELO
1594.1
1594.1
Current Opponent ELO
1599.4
5.27
Current ELO Difference
-5.27
0.51
Expected score
0.49
70
History Matches
83
0.07
Residual Mean
0.07
55.33
Overperformance
55.28
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.70
0.50
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
83
1.67
PPG
1.66
48.6%
Win rate
49.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
18.1%
30.0%
Loss rate
32.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.7%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
37
1.79
PPG
1.68
52.9%
Win rate
45.9%
20.6%
Draw rate
29.7%
26.5%
Loss rate
24.3%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
34
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.30
Goals for per game
1.78
74.3%
Scoring rate
77.1%
45.7%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.68
76.5%
Scoring rate
75.7%
38.2%
BTTS rate
48.6%
70
History Matches
83
1.30
Goals Mean
1.78
1.07
Goals Std
1.56
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.8%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.11
Goals against per game
1.45
62.9%
Conceding rate
71.1%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.32
52.9%
Conceding rate
70.3%
70
History Matches
83
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.09
Conceded Std
1.26
34.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
83
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
1.55
Goal Difference Std
2.25
5.15
Stability score
6.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
83
22
Lead Matches
36
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
22
Trailing Matches
21
31.8%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.98
Rest days
82.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
16
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.44
38
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
28
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.94
Portability PPG Range
1.70
37.82
Portability Score
44.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO5.27
PPG0.01
GF-0.48
GA-0.33
PPG0.12
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.54
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score-1.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate8.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-7.04
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-13
Short Rest Points Per Match0.56
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO5.27
Current Opponent ELO-5.27
Current ELO Difference10.53
Expected score0.02
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sydney United

L
Canberra FC2–1Sydney United6 Nov · away
Pick: Sydney United 48% · missed
W
Sutherland Sharks1–2Sydney United31 Oct · away
Pick: Sydney United 47% · hit
W
Sydney United6–0St. George Saints30 Aug · home
Pick: Sydney United 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

South Melbourne

W
Canberra FC0–2South Melbourne29 Oct · away
Pick: South Melbourne 51% · hit
W
Sutherland Sharks0–1South Melbourne17 Oct · away
Pick: South Melbourne 51% · hit
L
Sunshine Georgies1–0South Melbourne29 Aug · away
Pick: Sunshine Georgies 41% · hit
W
Preston Lions1–2South Melbourne26 Aug · away
Pick: Preston Lions 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sydney United and South Melbourne meet in Australian Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Sydney United Sports Centre. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sydney United win 26.5%, draw 29.9%, South Melbourne win 43.6%. The pick is South Melbourne win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.