South Hobart vs Wollongong Wolves
Match result probability Model pick: South Hobart win
South Hobart winPick
41.8%
Draw
18.0%
Wollongong Wolves win
40.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.2%
No37.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%
How much we know
South Hobart history46 matches
Wollongong Wolves history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours South Hobart
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 03:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 04:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why South Hobart are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
South Hobart are rated 136 Elo points higher
Elo 1,633 against 1,497. On rating alone South Hobart would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.
-
South Hobart score far more
3.35 goals a game over 46 matches for South Hobart, against 1.38 over 65 for Wollongong Wolves.
-
Defences are close
South Hobart concede 1.28 a game, Wollongong Wolves 1.35.
-
South Hobart games more often go over 2.5 goals
83% of South Hobart matches, against 55% for Wollongong Wolves. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wollongong Wolves@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1633.2
ELO
1497.1
46
ELO · Matches
65
1633.2
Current Team ELO
1497.1
1497.1
Current Opponent ELO
1633.2
136.1
Current ELO Difference
-136.1
0.69
Expected score
0.31
46
History Matches
65
0.14
Residual Mean
0.00
59.83
Overperformance
49.72
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.70
2.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
65
2.20
PPG
1.35
69.6%
Win rate
36.9%
10.9%
Draw rate
24.6%
19.6%
Loss rate
38.5%
97.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.5%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
3.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
23
Matches
33
2.17
PPG
1.21
69.6%
Win rate
30.3%
8.7%
Draw rate
30.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
39.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
65.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
3.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
23
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.35
Goals for per game
1.38
91.3%
Scoring rate
69.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
49.2%
3.30
Goals for per game
1.12
91.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
56.5%
BTTS rate
48.5%
46
History Matches
65
3.35
Goals Mean
1.38
2.37
Goals Std
1.22
91.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
78.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
56.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
3.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.35
69.6%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.39
65.2%
Conceding rate
75.8%
46
History Matches
65
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
65
0.74
Result entropy
0.98
3.15
Goal Difference Std
1.87
26.01
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
65
26
Lead Matches
20
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
65.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.73
8
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
1.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.00
Rest days
82.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
31
2.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
23
Long Rest History Matches
32
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.66
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.13
Portability PPG Std
0.16
2.48
Portability PPG Range
0.36
30.65
Portability Score
75.43
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO136.1
PPG0.84
GF1.96
GA-0.07
PPG0.96
PPG1.20
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches-19
Goals Mean1.96
Goals Std1.15
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate33.6%
Scored 3+ rate38.1%
Venue Goals Mean2.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.88
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.24
Goal Difference Std1.28
Stability score24.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate27.3%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.97
Portability PPG Range2.13
Portability Score-44.79
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.08
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO136.1
Current Opponent ELO-136.1
Current ELO Difference272.2
Expected score0.37
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
South Hobart
L
South Hobart1–2Preston Lions31 Oct · home
Pick: Preston Lions 48% · hit L
Wollongong Wolves2–0South Hobart25 Oct · away
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 43% · hit W
Lions1–2South Hobart18 Oct · away
Pick: Lions 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Wollongong Wolves
L
Wollongong Wolves1–2Preston Lions7 Nov · home
Pick: Preston Lions 42% · hit L
Wollongong Wolves1–3Lions31 Oct · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 41% · missed W
Wollongong Wolves2–0South Hobart25 Oct · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 43% · hit L
Wollongong Wolves0–4Manly United30 Aug · home
Pick: Wollongong Wolves 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
South Hobart and Wollongong Wolves meet in Australian Championship on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Darcy Street. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: South Hobart win 41.8%, draw 18.0%, Wollongong Wolves win 40.2%. The pick is South Hobart win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.4%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.