ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Belgrano Córdoba Res. vs Platense Res.

Belgrano Córdoba Res. Home · Elo 1,556
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Platense Res. Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Belgrano Córdoba Res. win
Belgrano Córdoba Res. winPick
47.2%
Draw
30.6%
Platense Res. win
22.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.6%
No54.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Belgrano Córdoba Res. history52 matches
Platense Res. history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Belgrano Córdoba Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Belgrano Córdoba Res. are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,462. On rating alone Belgrano Córdoba Res. would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Belgrano Córdoba Res. score far more

    1.40 goals a game over 52 matches for Belgrano Córdoba Res., against 0.75 over 51 for Platense Res..

  • Defences are close

    Belgrano Córdoba Res. concede 1.15 a game, Platense Res. 1.24.

  • Belgrano Córdoba Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Belgrano Córdoba Res. matches, against 33% for Platense Res.. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belgrano Córdoba Res.
Platense Res.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.5
ELO
1462.0
52
ELO · Matches
51
1555.5
Current Team ELO
1462.0
1462.0
Current Opponent ELO
1555.5
93.46
Current ELO Difference
-93.46
0.63
Expected score
0.37
52
History Matches
51
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.91
Overperformance
47.59
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.10
Goals for per game
0.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
51
1.75
PPG
1.08
50.0%
Win rate
25.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
43.1%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
44.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.96
PPG
0.84
55.6%
Win rate
20.0%
29.6%
Draw rate
24.0%
14.8%
Loss rate
56.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
29.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
52.9%
42.3%
BTTS rate
35.3%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.60
81.5%
Scoring rate
44.0%
40.7%
BTTS rate
32.0%
1.36
Goals for per game
0.77
72.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
27.3%
52
History Matches
51
1.40
Goals Mean
0.75
1.35
Goals Std
0.79
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
21.6%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.24
59.6%
Conceding rate
72.5%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.56
51.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.09
72.7%
Conceding rate
63.6%
52
History Matches
51
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.23
Conceded Std
1.06
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
51
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.49
5.36
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
51
19
Lead Matches
10
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.70
11
Trailing Matches
17
18.2%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.00
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
28
2.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
30
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.55
PPG
1.27
45.5%
Win rate
31.8%
18.2%
Draw rate
31.8%
36.4%
Loss rate
36.4%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.55
Current Competition PPG
1.27
-0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.32
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.34
73.83
Portability Score
74.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO93.46
PPG0.67
GF0.66
GA-0.08
PPG0.27
PPG1.12
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate28.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate22.1%
Scored 2+ rate15.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score3.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate24.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.71
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.46
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO93.46
Current Opponent ELO-93.46
Current ELO Difference186.9
Expected score0.26
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Belgrano Córdoba Res.

W
Quilmes 20–2Belgrano Córdoba Res.29 Oct · away
Pick: Quilmes 2 48% · missed
L
Belgrano Córdoba Res.0–2Estudiantes La Plata Res21 Oct · home
Pick: Estudiantes La Plata Res 36% · hit
W
Central Córdoba SdE Res.1–2Belgrano Córdoba Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Belgrano Córdoba Res. 40% · hit
W
Belgrano Córdoba Res.3–2San Martín San Juan Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Belgrano Córdoba Res. 71% · hit
L
Lanús Res.3–1Belgrano Córdoba Res.1 Sep · away
Pick: Lanús Res. 53% · hit

Platense Res.

L
Platense Res.1–3Lanús Res.27 Oct · home
Pick: Lanús Res. 42% · hit
L
Newell's Old Boys Res.2–1Platense Res.20 Oct · away
Pick: Newell's Old Boys Res. 59% · hit
L
Platense Res.0–1Defensa y Justicia Res.14 Oct · home
Pick: Defensa y Justicia Res. 41% · hit
D
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 22–2Platense Res.7 Oct · away
Pick: Platense Res. 34% · missed
D
Platense Res.1–1Atl. Rafaela 226 Aug · home
Pick: Platense Res. 52% · missed

About this match

Belgrano Córdoba Res. and Platense Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Belgrano Córdoba Res. win 47.2%, draw 30.6%, Platense Res. win 22.2%. The pick is Belgrano Córdoba Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 45.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.