ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Racing Club Res. vs Rosario Central Res.

Racing Club Res. Home · Elo 1,522
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rosario Central Res. Away · Elo 1,564
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rosario Central Res. win
Racing Club Res. win
34.0%
Draw
29.6%
Rosario Central Res. winPick
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%

How much we know

Racing Club Res. history55 matches
Rosario Central Res. history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Rosario Central Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rosario Central Res. are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,564 against 1,522. On rating alone Rosario Central Res. would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 55 matches for Racing Club Res., against 1.41 over 58 for Rosario Central Res..

  • Rosario Central Res. concede fewer

    Racing Club Res. concede 1.40 a game, Rosario Central Res. 0.90.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Racing Club Res. matches, against 43% for Rosario Central Res.. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Racing Club Res.
Rosario Central Res.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.3
ELO
1564.2
55
ELO · Matches
58
1522.3
Current Team ELO
1564.2
1564.2
Current Opponent ELO
1522.3
-41.91
Current ELO Difference
41.91
0.44
Expected score
0.56
55
History Matches
58
0.02
Residual Mean
0.06
51.69
Overperformance
54.45
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
58
1.31
PPG
1.72
30.9%
Win rate
46.6%
38.2%
Draw rate
32.8%
30.9%
Loss rate
20.7%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
43.1%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.50
PPG
1.67
39.3%
Win rate
44.4%
32.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
22.2%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.41
76.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
63.6%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.41
82.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
60.7%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.43
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.3%
72.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
55
History Matches
58
1.31
Goals Mean
1.41
1.14
Goals Std
1.13
76.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.7%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
74.5%
Conceding rate
55.2%
1.25
Goals against per game
0.89
64.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.17
80.0%
Conceding rate
65.2%
55
History Matches
58
1.40
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.18
Conceded Std
1.01
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.2%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
23.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
44.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.47
Stability score
4.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
58
16
Lead Matches
18
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.87
13
Trailing Matches
10
30.8%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
72.00
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.94
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
25
Matches
23
1.52
PPG
1.52
36.0%
Win rate
39.1%
44.0%
Draw rate
34.8%
20.0%
Loss rate
26.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
25
Current Competition Matches
23
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.52
0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.26
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.34
72.12
Portability Score
74.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-41.91
PPG-0.42
GF-0.10
GA0.50
PPG0.00
PPG-0.17
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate0.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.50
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-4.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate0.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.18
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-2.77
Rest days-5.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-41.91
Current Opponent ELO41.91
Current ELO Difference-83.82
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Racing Club Res.

W
Tigre Res.1–3Racing Club Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Res. 38% · hit
L
Racing Club Res.2–3San Lorenzo Res.22 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Club Res. 37% · missed
L
Vélez Sársfield Res.4–0Racing Club Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 58% · hit
D
Racing Club Res.2–2River Plate Res.6 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate Res. 41% · missed
D
Aldosivi Res.2–2Racing Club Res.1 Sep · away
Pick: Racing Club Res. 38% · missed

Rosario Central Res.

L
Rosario Central Res.0–1Sarmiento Res.27 Oct · home
Pick: Rosario Central Res. 54% · missed
W
Argentinos Juniors Res.1–2Rosario Central Res.20 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 37% · missed
D
Rosario Central Res.1–1Aldosivi Res.14 Oct · home
Pick: Rosario Central Res. 60% · missed
D
Gimnasia La Plata Res.2–2Rosario Central Res.6 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Racing Club Res. and Rosario Central Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Racing Club Res. win 34.0%, draw 29.6%, Rosario Central Res. win 36.4%. The pick is Rosario Central Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.7%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.