ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Instituto Res.

Atlético Tucumán Res. Home · Elo 1,496
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Instituto Res. Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Tucumán Res. win
Atlético Tucumán Res. winPick
35.3%
Draw
31.9%
Instituto Res. win
32.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Atlético Tucumán Res. history52 matches
Instituto Res. history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atlético Tucumán Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Instituto Res. are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,496. On rating alone Instituto Res. would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Atlético Tucumán Res. score more

    1.21 goals a game over 52 matches for Atlético Tucumán Res., against 1.09 over 57 for Instituto Res..

  • Instituto Res. concede fewer

    Atlético Tucumán Res. concede 1.46 a game, Instituto Res. 0.88.

  • Atlético Tucumán Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Atlético Tucumán Res. matches, against 30% for Instituto Res.. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Tucumán Res.
Instituto Res.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.3
ELO
1530.7
52
ELO · Matches
57
1496.3
Current Team ELO
1530.7
1530.7
Current Opponent ELO
1496.3
-34.46
Current ELO Difference
34.46
0.45
Expected score
0.55
52
History Matches
57
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
48.97
Overperformance
51.82
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.30
0.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
57
1.29
PPG
1.42
32.7%
Win rate
31.6%
30.8%
Draw rate
47.4%
36.5%
Loss rate
21.1%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.8%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
29
1.39
PPG
1.14
30.4%
Win rate
20.7%
47.8%
Draw rate
51.7%
21.7%
Loss rate
27.6%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
23
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.09
71.2%
Scoring rate
68.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.10
82.6%
Scoring rate
62.1%
69.6%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.17
63.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.5%
BTTS rate
54.2%
52
History Matches
57
1.21
Goals Mean
1.09
0.99
Goals Std
0.96
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
10.5%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
0.88
73.1%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.07
73.9%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.13
77.3%
Conceding rate
70.8%
52
History Matches
57
1.46
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.32
Conceded Std
0.80
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.8%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
57
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.10
0.23
Stability score
4.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
57
14
Lead Matches
18
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.74
16
Trailing Matches
11
18.8%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.00
Rest days
72.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
29
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
24
1.45
PPG
1.38
40.9%
Win rate
29.2%
22.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
20.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
22
Current Competition Matches
24
1.45
Current Competition PPG
1.38
-0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.04
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.08
77.65
Portability Score
92.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-34.46
PPG-0.13
GF0.12
GA0.58
PPG0.08
PPG0.25
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate2.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.58
Conceded Std0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate15.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.66
Stability score-4.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.27
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-14.98
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-34.46
Current Opponent ELO34.46
Current ELO Difference-68.92
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Tucumán Res.

L
Godoy Cruz Res.4–2Atlético Tucumán Res.29 Oct · away
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 42% · hit
D
Atlético Tucumán Res.0–0Gimnasia Mendoza 222 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Tucumán Res. 46% · missed
D
Barracas Central Res.1–1Atlético Tucumán Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tucumán Res. 37% · missed
W
Atlético Tucumán Res.2–0Talleres Córdoba Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Talleres Córdoba Res. 37% · missed
L
Vélez Sársfield Res.2–0Atlético Tucumán Res.25 Aug · away
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 64% · hit

Instituto Res.

L
Instituto Res.0–2Vélez Sársfield Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Vélez Sársfield Res. 41% · hit
D
Godoy Cruz Res.1–1Instituto Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Instituto Res. 37% · missed
W
Instituto Res.3–2River Plate Res.13 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate Res. 38% · missed
D
Gimnasia Mendoza 21–1Instituto Res.7 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 33% · hit
W
Instituto Res.2–0Argentinos Juniors Res.25 Aug · home
Pick: Instituto Res. 39% · hit

About this match

Atlético Tucumán Res. and Instituto Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atlético Tucumán Res. win 35.3%, draw 31.9%, Instituto Res. win 32.8%. The pick is Atlético Tucumán Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.