ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Defensa y Justicia Res. vs Boca Juniors Res.

Defensa y Justicia Res. Home · Elo 1,489
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Boca Juniors Res. Away · Elo 1,604
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boca Juniors Res. win
Defensa y Justicia Res. win
25.7%
Draw
27.1%
Boca Juniors Res. winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.9%
No52.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.4%
Under 2.553.6%

How much we know

Defensa y Justicia Res. history53 matches
Boca Juniors Res. history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Boca Juniors Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Boca Juniors Res. are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,489. On rating alone Boca Juniors Res. would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Boca Juniors Res. score more

    1.40 goals a game over 53 matches for Defensa y Justicia Res., against 1.67 over 52 for Boca Juniors Res..

  • Boca Juniors Res. concede fewer

    Defensa y Justicia Res. concede 1.42 a game, Boca Juniors Res. 0.58.

  • Defensa y Justicia Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Defensa y Justicia Res. matches, against 42% for Boca Juniors Res.. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Defensa y Justicia Res.
Boca Juniors Res.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.3
ELO
1604.2
53
ELO · Matches
52
1489.3
Current Team ELO
1604.2
1604.2
Current Opponent ELO
1489.3
-114.9
Current ELO Difference
114.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
53
History Matches
52
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
48.98
Overperformance
57.28
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
52
1.19
PPG
2.02
28.3%
Win rate
59.6%
34.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
37.7%
Loss rate
17.3%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.36
PPG
1.88
32.0%
Win rate
52.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
32.0%
28.0%
Loss rate
16.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.67
71.7%
Scoring rate
76.9%
60.4%
BTTS rate
34.6%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.32
76.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.67
86.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
68.2%
BTTS rate
28.6%
53
History Matches
52
1.40
Goals Mean
1.67
1.47
Goals Std
1.46
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
0.58
81.1%
Conceding rate
46.2%
1.24
Goals against per game
0.72
76.0%
Conceding rate
52.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
0.57
81.8%
Conceding rate
42.9%
53
History Matches
52
1.42
Conceded Mean
0.58
1.14
Conceded Std
0.72
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
9.6%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.9%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
0.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
53.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.87
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.71
0.62
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
52
21
Lead Matches
27
52.4%
Lead Win Rate
85.2%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.89
15
Trailing Matches
6
13.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.15
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.00
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
21
1.55
PPG
1.86
40.9%
Win rate
52.4%
31.8%
Draw rate
28.6%
27.3%
Loss rate
19.0%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
61.9%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
22
Current Competition Matches
21
1.55
Current Competition PPG
1.86
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.10
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.27
62.11
Portability Score
78.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-114.9
PPG-0.83
GF-0.28
GA0.84
PPG-0.31
PPG-0.52
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.35
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.84
Conceded Std0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.35
Conceded 2+ rate30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches1
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-12.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.31
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-16.51
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Current Team ELO-114.9
Current Opponent ELO114.9
Current ELO Difference-229.8
Expected score-0.32
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Defensa y Justicia Res.

L
Independiente Res.4–1Defensa y Justicia Res.27 Oct · away
Pick: Independiente Res. 57% · hit
D
Defensa y Justicia Res.1–1Atl. Rafaela 220 Oct · home
Pick: Defensa y Justicia Res. 64% · missed
W
Platense Res.0–1Defensa y Justicia Res.14 Oct · away
Pick: Defensa y Justicia Res. 41% · hit
D
Defensa y Justicia Res.1–1Quilmes 26 Oct · home
Pick: Defensa y Justicia Res. 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Boca Juniors Res.

L
Huracán Res.1–0Boca Juniors Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 38% · missed
W
Boca Juniors Res.1–0Ferro 215 Oct · home
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 80% · hit
W
Boca Juniors Res.1–0Colón Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 77% · hit
W
Estudiantes La Plata Res2–3Boca Juniors Res.26 Aug · away
Pick: Estudiantes La Plata Res 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Defensa y Justicia Res. and Boca Juniors Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Defensa y Justicia Res. win 25.7%, draw 27.1%, Boca Juniors Res. win 47.2%. The pick is Boca Juniors Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.4%. Both teams to score: 47.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.